Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic will restore US customer access to Claude Fable 5, also known as Claude Mythos, by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves Yes only if Anthropic restores access to Claude Fable 5 or a confirmed same model for US customers; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter is tracking $8,697 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including recent Yes-side accumulation from new wallets.

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,854.

Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump

Notable Trades

New wallet scaling into Yes

A 1-day-old repeat-flagged wallet is building a sizable Yes position after catching a major price move on the same market.

  • A 1-day-old wallet has already placed $9.7k across five flagged bets and is adding size here.
  • This bettor bought Yes as low as 18¢ before it moved to 86¢, then added another $3.0k at 86¢.
  • They are active across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis around Claude Fable 5 restoration.

$3,002 on Yes

New wallet scaling into Yes

A 1-day-old repeat-flagged wallet is building a sizable Yes position after catching a major price move on the same market.

  • A 1-day-old wallet has already placed $9.7k across five flagged bets and is adding size here.
  • This bettor bought Yes as low as 18¢ before it moved to 86¢, then added another $3.0k at 86¢.
  • They are active across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis around Claude Fable 5 restoration.

$5,695 on Yes

Profitable serial thesis bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought $3,000 of No on a relatively quiet AI policy market, adding to a broader same-event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 343 resolved bets and is up $45K lifetime.
  • They trade across many related markets, with 51 events and $233K in serial cross-market positioning.
  • The $3K No buy was larger than the market’s prior 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quieter market.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market bettor bought Yes on a thin AI-policy market, with a 67% resolved win rate and $123.8k lifetime profit.

  • This bettor has won 67% of 118 resolved trades and is up $123.8k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 35 related events, suggesting a repeat thesis-driven style rather than a one-off bet.
  • The $1.16k Yes buy is large for this thin market, equal to about 43% of its 24h volume.

$1,158 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $35,962 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x39f0...2c5d No, $30,980
  3. 0xe474...1508 Yes, $11,894 (62% win rate)
  4. 0xb4f2...e5fa No, $9,076 (71% win rate)
  5. 0x2e7a...29f6 No, $4,099 (58% win rate)
  6. 0x122c...fbed Yes, $3,994 (53% win rate)
  7. 0x5a21...9318 Yes, $3,265 (48% win rate)
  8. 0xeca0...e8f8 Yes, $3,001 (51% win rate)
  9. 0xa676...1c22 No, $3,000 (44% win rate)
  10. 0x7d26...a7d1 No, $2,969 (56% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Mojtaba remains out of sight

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

29dClaude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?$12,854 tracked4 signalsClaudeBig TechanthropicClaude MythosAITechTrump
Yes
86¢
No
14¢

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “Yes
96¢
76¢
55¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

5d ago

$3,002 on Yes at 86¢

86¢86¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

5d ago

$5,695 on Yes at 86¢

86¢86¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

8d ago

$3,000 on No at 33¢

33¢14¢19¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

8d ago

$1,158 on Yes at 78¢

78¢86¢8¢

Related Theses