Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

This market tracks whether Anthropic will restore US customer access to Claude Fable 5, also known as Claude Mythos, by July 31, 2026. PolySpotter monitors the live Polymarket odds and smart money activity, including $1,552 tracked and recent Yes-side scaling from new wallets. The market resolves Yes only if Anthropic restores access to the qualifying model for US customers by the deadline; otherwise it resolves No.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,406.

Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump

Notable Trades

Cross-market AI bettor

A historically active cross-market bettor with a 73% resolved record is building a broader position on this Claude-restoration event and caught a quick move from 89¢ to 94¢.

  • This bettor has won 73% of 49 resolved trades and is up lifetime.
  • They have put about $10K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • This entry already moved from 89¢ to 94¢, matching the market’s strong recent momentum.

$1,552 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

New wallet scaling into Yes

A 1-day-old repeat-flagged wallet is building a sizable Yes position after catching a major price move on the same market.

  • A 1-day-old wallet has already placed $9.7k across five flagged bets and is adding size here.
  • This bettor bought Yes as low as 18¢ before it moved to 86¢, then added another $3.0k at 86¢.
  • They are active across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis around Claude Fable 5 restoration.

$3,002 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

New wallet scaling into Yes

A 1-day-old repeat-flagged wallet is building a sizable Yes position after catching a major price move on the same market.

  • A 1-day-old wallet has already placed $9.7k across five flagged bets and is adding size here.
  • This bettor bought Yes as low as 18¢ before it moved to 86¢, then added another $3.0k at 86¢.
  • They are active across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis around Claude Fable 5 restoration.

$5,695 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Profitable serial thesis bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought $3,000 of No on a relatively quiet AI policy market, adding to a broader same-event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 343 resolved bets and is up $45K lifetime.
  • They trade across many related markets, with 51 events and $233K in serial cross-market positioning.
  • The $3K No buy was larger than the market’s prior 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quieter market.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market bettor bought Yes on a thin AI-policy market, with a 67% resolved win rate and $123.8k lifetime profit.

  • This bettor has won 67% of 118 resolved trades and is up $123.8k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 35 related events, suggesting a repeat thesis-driven style rather than a one-off bet.
  • The $1.16k Yes buy is large for this thin market, equal to about 43% of its 24h volume.

$1,158 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0x39f0...2c5d Outcome 10493545, $30,980
  2. 0xf5e8...9fbd Outcome 10493545, $10,495
  3. 0xb4f2...e5fa Outcome 10493545, $9,076 (71% win rate)
  4. 0x8931...a90c Outcome 72885534, $6,687 (100% win rate)
  5. 0x2e7a...29f6 Outcome 10493545, $4,099 (50% win rate)
  6. 0x37fd...7101 Outcome 10493545, $3,014
  7. 0xa676...1c22 Outcome 10493545, $3,000 (44% win rate)
  8. 0x7290...b1b3 Outcome 10493545, $2,485
  9. 0xc955...b1e9 Outcome 10493545, $2,400 (73% win rate)
  10. 0xa2b6...a5b4 Outcome 10493545, $2,339

Related Theses

Iran deal by June end

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Mojtaba remains out of sight

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

29dClaude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?$14,406 tracked5 signalsClaudeBig TechanthropicClaude MythosAITechTrump

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “Yes
96¢
76¢
55¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

1d ago

$1,552 on Yes at 89¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

5d ago

$3,002 on Yes at 86¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

5d ago

$5,695 on Yes at 86¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

8d ago

$3,000 on No at 33¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

8d ago

$1,158 on Yes at 78¢

Related Theses