Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
This market tracks whether Anthropic will restore US customer access to Claude Fable 5, also known as Claude Mythos, by July 31, 2026. PolySpotter monitors the live Polymarket odds and smart money activity, including $1,552 tracked and recent Yes-side scaling from new wallets. The market resolves Yes only if Anthropic restores access to the qualifying model for US customers by the deadline; otherwise it resolves No.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,406.
Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump
Notable Trades
Cross-market AI bettor
A historically active cross-market bettor with a 73% resolved record is building a broader position on this Claude-restoration event and caught a quick move from 89¢ to 94¢.
- This bettor has won 73% of 49 resolved trades and is up lifetime.
- They have put about $10K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This entry already moved from 89¢ to 94¢, matching the market’s strong recent momentum.
$1,552 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
New wallet scaling into Yes
A 1-day-old repeat-flagged wallet is building a sizable Yes position after catching a major price move on the same market.
- A 1-day-old wallet has already placed $9.7k across five flagged bets and is adding size here.
- This bettor bought Yes as low as 18¢ before it moved to 86¢, then added another $3.0k at 86¢.
- They are active across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis around Claude Fable 5 restoration.
$3,002 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
New wallet scaling into Yes
A 1-day-old repeat-flagged wallet is building a sizable Yes position after catching a major price move on the same market.
- A 1-day-old wallet has already placed $9.7k across five flagged bets and is adding size here.
- This bettor bought Yes as low as 18¢ before it moved to 86¢, then added another $3.0k at 86¢.
- They are active across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis around Claude Fable 5 restoration.
$5,695 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable serial thesis bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought $3,000 of No on a relatively quiet AI policy market, adding to a broader same-event thesis.
- This bettor has won 71% of 343 resolved bets and is up $45K lifetime.
- They trade across many related markets, with 51 events and $233K in serial cross-market positioning.
- The $3K No buy was larger than the market’s prior 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quieter market.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor bought Yes on a thin AI-policy market, with a 67% resolved win rate and $123.8k lifetime profit.
- This bettor has won 67% of 118 resolved trades and is up $123.8k lifetime.
- They have traded across 35 related events, suggesting a repeat thesis-driven style rather than a one-off bet.
- The $1.16k Yes buy is large for this thin market, equal to about 43% of its 24h volume.
$1,158 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0x39f0...2c5d — Outcome 10493545, $30,980
- 0xf5e8...9fbd — Outcome 10493545, $10,495
- 0xb4f2...e5fa — Outcome 10493545, $9,076 (71% win rate)
- 0x8931...a90c — Outcome 72885534, $6,687 (100% win rate)
- 0x2e7a...29f6 — Outcome 10493545, $4,099 (50% win rate)
- 0x37fd...7101 — Outcome 10493545, $3,014
- 0xa676...1c22 — Outcome 10493545, $3,000 (44% win rate)
- 0x7290...b1b3 — Outcome 10493545, $2,485
- 0xc955...b1e9 — Outcome 10493545, $2,400 (73% win rate)
- 0xa2b6...a5b4 — Outcome 10493545, $2,339
Related Theses
Iran deal by June end
Covers 3 related markets
Mojtaba remains out of sight
Covers 3 related markets
