Part of: Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,057.

Categories: Politics, Elections, Global Elections, Peru, Peru Election, Rewards 300 4.5 50

Notable Trades

New wallet buying repricing

A brand-new wallet bought into a sharp repricing in a Peru election market, suggesting fresh conviction during a major move.

  • A wallet less than 2 days old placed a fresh $1.1k bet as this market was moving hard
  • The market has repriced dramatically, with Yes falling about 38 points from its prior range before this entry at 48¢
  • This is a politics market with solid activity ($37k in 24h), so buying into a violent reset can reflect a deliberate view rather than random noise

$1,057 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 75038166, $29,268
  2. 0x629b...995a Outcome 31595274, $18,229 (57% win rate)
  3. 0xc291...48ae Outcome 31595274, $6,233
  4. 0x26ea...357e Outcome 31595274, $3,375
  5. 0x8797...bbbe Outcome 31595274, $3,052 (73% win rate)
  6. 0x73b8...f6b5 Outcome 31595274, $1,265
  7. 0x6e31...5571 Outcome 31595274, $1,080
  8. 0xce28...0b58 Outcome 31595274, $865
  9. 0x3fbb...3f66 Outcome 31595274, $734 (85% win rate)
  10. 0x63cf...52b4 Outcome 31595274, $621

Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?

ResolvedPeru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory$1,057 tracked1 signalPoliticsElectionsGlobal ElectionsPeruPeru ElectionRewards 300 4.5 50

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Price History — “No
102¢
98¢
95¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?

48d ago

$1,057 on Yes at 48¢