Part of: What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?
This prediction market asks whether Donald Trump will say “Taiwan” or “Tibet” during events featuring Xi Jinping from May 14 through May 15, 2026, Beijing Time. It resolves Yes if Trump says either listed term, including plural or possessive forms, and No otherwise; PolySpotter is tracking $1,709 in smart-money activity and 1 smart-money signal for this market.
Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Xi Jinping from May 14 to May 15, 2026 (https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/04/china/china-us-talks-iran-intl-hnk). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring Xi Jinping from May 14 through May 15, 2026 (Beijing Time). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. This market is explicitly about events featuring both Donald Trump and Xi Jinping from May 14 through May 15, 2026 (Beijing Time). All such events featuring both on these dates count. Speeches, events, or comments which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this visit is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,725.
Categories: Trump, Politics, China, Mentions, Trump-Xi Summit
Notable Trades
93% winner buying dip
Surfaced because a profitable 14-1 wallet is buying Yes near resolution after a sharp price collapse, though the track record is mostly from high-priced favorites.
- This bettor has won 14 of 15 resolved trades and is up $927 lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 38¢ after the market fell sharply from its prior 73¢ range.
- The market resolves during the Trump-Xi event window, so near-term information can matter more here.
$1,709 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable serial event trader
Serial cross-market trader with a large 1,232-bet history, 67% win rate, and +$63k P&L is buying No on a Trump-Xi wording market.
- This bettor has a long record across 1,232 resolved bets, winning 67% and making $63k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active in 267 events with over $1M deployed.
- Buying No at 64¢ suggests they see the market overestimating Trump saying the terms.
$1,080 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable trio buys No
Three wallets bought No together, including two highly profitable bettors and one with an 84% resolved win rate, on a near-term Trump/Xi wording market that has already moved in their favor.
- This cluster includes proven profitable bettors, including one up $269K lifetime and another winning 84% of resolved bets.
- Three wallets bought the same No outcome within minutes, totaling $4.7K in coordinated flow.
- Their entries at 45–51¢ are already ahead of the current 58¢ No price, suggesting the market followed their direction.
$4,701 on No
Repeat new wallet buying Yes
A 5-day-old repeat new-wallet bettor has placed multiple large flagged bets and is buying Yes despite a recent 19-point market rally.
- This 5-day-old wallet has already triggered 4 large-bet alerts totaling about $8.1K.
- They bought Yes at 73¢ on a market that has jumped 19 points in the last day.
- The bet is modest versus market volume, but the repeat new-wallet pattern suggests conviction.
$1,235 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xecaa...77a9 — No, $11,078 (68% win rate)
- 0x789b...11f8 — Yes, $8,483
- 0x0cb1...dea6 — Yes, $8,174
- 0xa40d...1b72 — Yes, $7,491 (93% win rate)
- 0x5109...5e9c — No, $7,214 (40% win rate)
- 0x3c59...1766 — No, $6,663 (70% win rate)
- 0x2c39...56dc — No, $5,218 (57% win rate)
- 0x22db...190f — No, $4,900
- 0x0298...93c4 — No, $4,056
- 0x364d...9f8f — No, $3,788 (84% win rate)
