Part of: Ohio Senate Election Winner

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the Democratic candidate will win Ohio’s 2026 U.S. Senate special election, scheduled for November 3, including any runoff. PolySpotter tracks $22,652 in smart money and one signal, with recent activity showing a trader scaling into Yes.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

14 smart money signals detected, totaling $93,540.

Categories: Ohio Midterm, Senate Elections, Midterms, US Election, Elections, Politics, Jon Husted, sherrod brown, Global Elections, United States, Key Senate Races, Senate midterms

Notable Trades

Proven 88% winner backs Yes

A highly profitable bettor with 3,494 resolved positions and an 88% win rate has bought Yes at 68¢.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 3,494 resolved positions and is up $6.46 million.
  • They put $2,190 on Yes at 68¢, while trading across 1,705 events and 2,064 markets.

$2,203 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Proven sharp adding to Yes

A highly profitable bettor with 193 resolved positions and a large historical edge is adding to an existing Yes position.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 193 resolved positions and is up $78,132.
  • They added nearly $2,380 to Yes, building on an existing position worth over $10,000.
  • The trade was placed at 68¢, below the suggested 78¢ entry ceiling.

$1,420 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven 88% winner backs Yes

A highly profitable bettor with 3,494 resolved positions and an 88% win rate has bought Yes at 68¢.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 3,494 resolved positions and is up $6.46 million.
  • They put $2,190 on Yes at 68¢, while trading across 1,705 events and 2,064 markets.

$2,203 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Proven 75% winner re-enters

A highly experienced, profitable trader with a 75% win rate is making a fresh Yes entry after previously closing a position.

  • This bettor has won 75% of nearly 9,700 resolved trades and is up $1.62M.
  • They have traded across 1,278 events and are re-entering Yes after closing an earlier position.
  • The $1,590 buy was placed at 69¢ in a liquid market.

$1,590 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Proven sharp adding to Yes

A highly profitable bettor with 193 resolved positions and a large historical edge is adding to an existing Yes position.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 193 resolved positions and is up $78,132.
  • They added nearly $2,380 to Yes, building on an existing position worth over $10,000.
  • The trade was placed at 68¢, below the suggested 78¢ entry ceiling.

$2,380 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven 88% winner backs Yes

A highly profitable bettor with 3,494 resolved positions and an 88% win rate has bought Yes at 68¢.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 3,494 resolved positions and is up $6.46 million.
  • They put $2,190 on Yes at 68¢, while trading across 1,705 events and 2,064 markets.

$2,190 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

90% winner adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with a 90% win rate and substantial edge is adding to a No position at 33¢.

  • This bettor has won 27 of 30 resolved positions and is up $458,593.
  • They are adding to an existing No position at 33¢, while the market prices No at 34¢.

$3,513 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Proven winner adding to Yes

A proven bettor with a 78% record and substantial positive returns is adding to an existing Yes position.

  • This bettor has won 59 of 76 resolved positions and earned about $48,000.
  • They are adding roughly $1,806 to an existing Yes position at 66¢, showing continued conviction.

$1,751 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Proven winner adding to Yes

A proven bettor with a 78% record and substantial positive returns is adding to an existing Yes position.

  • This bettor has won 59 of 76 resolved positions and earned about $48,000.
  • They are adding roughly $1,806 to an existing Yes position at 66¢, showing continued conviction.

$1,806 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

95% winner buying No

A highly profitable bettor with 3,570 resolved positions is buying No at 39¢, supported by a reported 35-point edge over average odds.

  • This bettor has won 95% of 3,570 resolved positions and earned about $1.79M.
  • They are buying No at 39¢ in a major Senate race market, with a reported 35-point edge over average odds.
  • The trader has positioned across 695 events, suggesting an extensive history of active market calls.

$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1fee...ed5e — No, $238,364 (88% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $163,066
  3. 0x9648...6825 — No, $112,221 (72% win rate)
  4. 0x34ee...7f1e — Yes, $110,782 (22% win rate)
  5. 0xb5d1...6e35 — Yes, $84,314 (40% win rate)
  6. 0x2c33...0563 — No, $77,753 (56% win rate)
  7. 0x7523...4c4c — Yes, $50,000 (50% win rate)
  8. 0xecaa...77a9 — Yes, $50,000 (73% win rate)
  9. 0x6b88...9856 — No, $50,000 (90% win rate)
  10. 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $44,556 (48% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

France routs England in high-scoring match

Covers 9 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Peru elects right-wing president

Covers 3 related markets

Spurs win by three

Covers 14 related markets

Spain routs in goalfest

Covers 9 related markets

Top favorites to win World Cup

Covers 4 related markets

England rout Ghana in goalfest

Covers 9 related markets

Republicans take Senate, Democrats House

Covers 3 related markets

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Ohio Senate Election Winner$93,540 tracked14 signalsOhio MidtermSenate ElectionsMidtermsUS ElectionElectionsPoliticsJon Hustedsherrod brownGlobal ElectionsUnited StatesKey Senate RacesSenate midterms
Yes
72¢
No
28¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “Yes”
75¢
70¢
65¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-31 02:43 UTC

$2,203 on Yes at 68¢

68¢→72¢↑4¢

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-31 00:42 UTC

$1,420 on Yes at 68¢

68¢→72¢↑4¢

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-30 18:51 UTC

$2,203 on Yes at 68¢

68¢→72¢↑4¢

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-29 10:43 UTC

$1,590 on Yes at 69¢

69¢→72¢↑3¢

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-28 21:36 UTC

$2,380 on Yes at 68¢

68¢→72¢↑4¢

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-28 18:02 UTC

$2,190 on Yes at 68¢

68¢→72¢↑4¢

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-25 02:17 UTC

$3,513 on No at 33¢

33¢→28¢↓5¢

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-17 05:32 UTC

$1,751 on Yes at 66¢

66¢→72¢↑6¢

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-16 20:47 UTC

$1,806 on Yes at 66¢

66¢→72¢↑6¢

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-05 12:24 UTC

$1,200 on No at 39¢

39¢→28¢↓11¢

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-01 09:39 UTC

$38,921 on Yes at 41¢

41¢→72¢↑31¢

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

2026-09-30 00:36 UTC

$3,655 on No at 39¢

39¢→28¢↓11¢

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

2026-09-19 06:09 UTC

$22,652 on Yes at 55¢

55¢→72¢↑17¢

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

2026-09-14 06:45 UTC

$8,056 on Yes at 52¢

52¢→72¢↑20¢

Related Theses