Part of: Next Claude Sonnet released by...?

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,731.

Categories: Claude 5, AI, Sonnet, Tech, anthropic

Notable Trades

New whale buying YES

A 2-day-old wallet with 14 recent large-bet flags is building a Yes position and already entered well below the current market price.

  • This 2-day-old wallet has already placed 14 flagged bets totaling $24.4K.
  • They bought Yes at 74¢, and the market has since moved to about 82¢.
  • This was a large share of recent activity, suggesting unusually strong conviction for a new account.

$1,731 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 45%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0578...e1fb — No, $2,000
  2. 0x27fa...d880 — No, $818
  3. 0x2220...5db4 — No, $600
  4. 0x7dc9...525e — No, $294
  5. 0x0777...4b7f — No, $273
  6. 0xfefb...8f26 — No, $263
  7. 0xdc05...9a76 — No, $188
  8. 0xc1d1...c4b9 — No, $165
  9. 0x5533...51ba — No, $105
  10. 0x3329...43a6 — No, $100

Related Theses

Ceasefire arrives after July 24

Covers 2 related markets

Claude Fable returns soon

Covers 4 related markets

Gemini Pro launches August 15–21

Covers 4 related markets

GPT-5.6 launches July 7-13

Covers 2 related markets

GPT-6 won’t launch by October 2026

Covers 5 related markets

Mythos model arrives in mid-September

Covers 4 related markets

Astra will debut below 1500

Covers 2 related markets

Grok 4.6 releases August 13–14

Covers 3 related markets

Next Claude Sonnet releases by June

Covers 2 related markets

Astra releases in late August

Covers 2 related markets

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?

Next Claude Sonnet released by...?$1,731 tracked1 signalClaude 5AISonnetTechanthropic
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?

2026-06-28 00:06 UTC

$1,731 on Yes at 74¢

74¢→100¢↑26¢

Related Theses

Ceasefire arrives after July 24
Wallet_0x876bb trades 2 related markets
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …
Claude Fable returns soon
Wallet_0x876bb trades 4 related markets
Will Claude Fable 5 be restore…Will Claude Fable 5 be restore…Will Claude Fable 5 be restore…
Gemini Pro launches August 15–21
Wallet_0x876bb trades 4 related markets
Will the next Google Gemini Pr…Will the next Google Gemini Pr…Will the next Google Gemini Pr…
GPT-5.6 launches July 7-13
Wallet_0x876bb trades 2 related markets
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 20…GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2…
GPT-6 won’t launch by October 2026
Wallet_0x876bb trades 5 related markets
Will GPT-6 be released by Sept…Will GPT-6 be released by Augu…Will GPT-6 be released by Augu…
Mythos model arrives in mid-September
Wallet_0x876bb trades 4 related markets
Next Mythos-Class Model releas…Next Mythos-Class Model releas…Next Mythos-Class Model releas…
Astra will debut below 1500
Wallet_0x876bb trades 2 related markets
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debu…Will OpenAI’s Astra model debu…
Grok 4.6 releases August 13–14
Wallet_0x876bb trades 3 related markets
Grok 4.6 released by August 12…Grok 4.6 released by August 14…Grok 4.6 released by August 7,…
Next Claude Sonnet releases by June
Wallet_0x876bb trades 2 related markets
Will the next Claude Sonnet mo…Will the next Claude Sonnet mo…
Astra releases in late August
Wallet_0x876bb trades 2 related markets
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be r…Will OpenAI’s Astra model be r…