Part of: Next Claude Sonnet released by...?

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether Anthropic will make its next Claude Sonnet model publicly available by July 31, 2026. Live Polymarket odds reflect trader expectations around Anthropic’s AI release timeline, with PolySpotter currently tracking $1,731 in smart money and a recent whale buying YES.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,731.

Categories: Claude 5, AI, Sonnet, Tech, anthropic

Notable Trades

New whale buying YES

A 2-day-old wallet with 14 recent large-bet flags is building a Yes position and already entered well below the current market price.

  • This 2-day-old wallet has already placed 14 flagged bets totaling $24.4K.
  • They bought Yes at 74¢, and the market has since moved to about 82¢.
  • This was a large share of recent activity, suggesting unusually strong conviction for a new account.

$1,731 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x0578...e1fb Outcome 14267593, $2,000
  2. 0x126e...c360 Outcome 14267593, $2,000
  3. 0xaa81...aaf7 Outcome 14267593, $2,000
  4. 0x46b2...df24 Outcome 14267593, $1,260
  5. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 14267593, $913
  6. 0x27fa...d880 Outcome 14267593, $818
  7. 0x2220...5db4 Outcome 14267593, $600
  8. 0xad99...dbab Outcome 14267593, $373
  9. 0x4d52...f88a Outcome 14267593, $362
  10. 0x7dc9...525e Outcome 14267593, $294

Related Theses

Claude Fable returns soon

Covers 4 related markets

Next Claude Sonnet releases by June

Covers 2 related markets

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?

29dNext Claude Sonnet released by...?$1,731 tracked1 signalClaude 5AISonnetTechanthropic

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
100¢
70¢
41¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?

4d ago

$1,731 on Yes at 74¢

Related Theses