Next Claude Sonnet released by...?
5 signals across 3 markets · $8,674 tracked · resolves Jul 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether Anthropic’s next Claude Sonnet model is released to the general public by June 30, 2026. The market focuses specifically on a model officially named Sonnet, with recent smart-money activity including a 1-day repeat new-wallet signal.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- New whale buying YES
A 2-day-old wallet with 14 recent large-bet flags is building a Yes position and already entered well below the current market price.
$1,731Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 6.5 - 1-day repeat new wallet
A 1-day-old wallet has rapidly built multiple flagged positions and paid the full 60¢ ask on a thin market, suggesting fresh conviction despite no resolved track record yet.
$1,006Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 5.5 - 82% winner buying momentum
Proven profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate bought Yes after major upward momentum in an AI release-date market.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.0 - Profitable new repeat bettor
New 17-day wallet with repeat large-bet flags and early positive P&L bought Yes despite the market now pricing lower.
$2,917Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial forecaster
Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a thin AI release market after a sharp 1-day move.
$1,020Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x701488…d7e9$2,917 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
- 0x876bb0…1703$2,737 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 83% wins
- 0x757828…6426$2,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0x9aeb53…2729$1,020 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for the next Claude Sonnet release?
The event tracks prediction-market odds for whether Anthropic makes its next Claude Sonnet model publicly available by June 30, 2026. Odds can move as traders react to Anthropic product announcements, AI industry rumors, and developer access signals.
What outcome is being traded in this Claude Sonnet market?
The child market asks whether the next model explicitly named Claude Sonnet is released by June 30, 2026. Models with other names, such as Opus or Haiku, would not count unless Anthropic officially names them Sonnet variants.
Is smart money betting on the Claude Sonnet release timing?
PolySpotter currently tracks about $1,006 in smart-money activity on this event, with one recent signal: a 1-day repeat new-wallet alert. That suggests at least one watched wallet has returned to trade the market recently.
When does this Claude Sonnet prediction market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by July 31, 2026, after the market can determine whether Anthropic released the next Claude Sonnet model to the general public by the specified June 30, 2026 deadline.