Part of: Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,736.
Categories: Politics, US Election, Elections, Primaries, Parent For Derivative, primary elections, Texas Senate, Senate Primary, Republican Primary, Texas Primary, March 3 Primaries
Notable Trades
Profitable primary contrarians
Four experienced, mostly profitable wallets are taking the No side on a major political primary market, with correlated cross-market positioning despite Paxton Yes momentum.
- Four wallets are all taking the same No side, totaling about $4.9K in coordinated contrarian flow.
- The wallets are experienced and mostly profitable, with three showing six-figure lifetime gains.
- This goes against recent momentum: Yes is up 11% this week, but these traders are fading that move.
$4,929 on No
Profitable cross-market bettor
Experienced profitable political bettor is taking the No side while also positioning across related Paxton primary markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This bettor has a long track record, with 774 resolved bets and about $150K in lifetime profit.
- They are positioning across multiple related markets, suggesting a broader view against Paxton rather than a single small punt.
- Entry at 40¢ implies they see the No side as underpriced, and the market is still available cheaper around 36¢.
$3,566 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
80% winner re-enters Yes
A proven profitable wallet with an 80% hit rate across 976 resolved bets is re-entering Yes on Paxton despite only a modest composite score.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $49K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 63¢ after previously closing a profitable Yes position entered around 48¢.
- The market is liquid with a tight 1¢ spread, so this looks more like a sharp directional view than a thin-market anomaly.
$1,890 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
85% winner cross-market sharp
Surfacing because this is a proven profitable wallet with an 85% resolved-bet win rate and a long serial cross-market history, now taking a Paxton Yes position that has already moved sharply in its favor.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved bets and is up about $1.29M lifetime.
- They are a major cross-market trader, active across 115 events with $4.7M total deployed.
- The Paxton Yes entry at 41¢ has already moved to 57¢, suggesting the market followed their position quickly.
$6,443 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
81% winner flips to NO
A proven 81% win-rate cross-market political trader has flipped from a prior Yes position into No while positioning across three related markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $317K lifetime.
- They are active across 3 related markets with $24K positioned on this event.
- This is a thesis flip: they closed a prior Yes position and are now buying No at 39¢.
$1,963 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Sharp bettor flips bearish
A highly profitable bettor with an 80% win rate is expressing a fresh bearish view on Paxton by selling Yes at 55¢, which translates to buying No at 45¢.
- This bettor wins 80% of their trades across 1,049 resolved positions and is up about $616k lifetime
- The trade effectively means buying No at 45¢, a fresh bearish bet after their earlier No position was already closed
- Entry near 45¢ stands close to the current market and comes from a proven political trader with a large sample size
$2,071 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable new wallet buying Yes
A very new wallet with repeat large bets and early profit is making another nearly $2k directional bet in a political market, suggesting conviction worth watching despite the limited track record.
- This new wallet has already been flagged multiple times, with about $6.9k in large bets and $2.4k in profit so far.
- They are building a fresh political position with a $1,990 buy at 62¢, showing clear conviction rather than routine trading.
- The market is active enough to matter but only did $2.8k in 24-hour volume, so this single order was a meaningful share of recent flow.
$1,990 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
A proven high-volume political trader with 264 resolved bets and $670k profit opened a fresh $5.9k Yes position at 47¢, making this worth surfacing despite only one moderate signal.
- This bettor has won 70% of 264 resolved trades and is up about $670k lifetime
- They trade across 41 events and 59 markets, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
- They opened a fresh Yes position at 47¢, a level that leaves room if Paxton's chances keep rising
$5,885 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 11413483, $442,135
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 11413483, $169,854 (80% win rate)
- 0xbb04...648c — Outcome 11413483, $128,176
- 0xb698...976a — Outcome 11413483, $100,000
- 0xd1ac...08d5 — Outcome 43891259, $14,648 (49% win rate)
- 0xb45d...a406 — Outcome 11413483, $10,000
- 0x4042...058f — Outcome 43891259, $10,000
- 0x4c68...6162 — Outcome 43891259, $9,307 (75% win rate)
- 0x629b...995a — Outcome 11413483, $5,555 (57% win rate)
- 0xa5e3...4d7e — Outcome 11413483, $5,483 (19% win rate)
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US-Iran peace deal soon
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Sánchez and Belmont lose
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Iran ceasefire collapses by June
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US Iran peace deal imminent
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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