This bettor has won 17 of 18 resolved bets and is up $1,405 lifetime. They bought No at 88¢, backing the high-probability view that Musk will not land in this tweet-count range. The wallet is also positioned across 2 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader count-range thesis.

Part of: Elon Musk # tweets May 8 - May 15, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,115.

Categories: Culture, Politics, Tweet Markets, Rewards Automation 200 4.5 50

Notable Trades

94% winner buying No

Surface due to a profitable 94% win-rate wallet taking a fresh No position, despite the modest trade size and common two-market correlation signal.

This bettor has won 17 of 18 resolved bets and is up $1,405 lifetime.
They bought No at 88¢, backing the high-probability view that Musk will not land in this tweet-count range.
The wallet is also positioned across 2 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader count-range thesis.

$1,656 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

94% serial cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market trader with a 94% resolved win rate bought No at 87¢ despite negative lifetime P&L, making the wallet track record the key signal.

This bettor has won 94% of 1,054 resolved trades across 97 events.
They are a very active cross-market trader, with $2.5M flagged across 163 markets.
Buying No at 87¢ means they are betting Elon will not land in the 80–99 tweet range.

$4,351 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Sharp 87% winner bought No

Sharp wallet with an 87% win rate and strong lifetime profit bought No on the Elon tweet-count bucket, and the position has already moved from 80% to 91%.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $19K lifetime.
They bought No at 80¢, and the market has already moved to 91¢.
Their 986-bet history suggests a real edge, not a one-off lucky call.

$1,043 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

94% serial cross-market bettor

A highly active serial cross-market bettor is effectively buying Yes at 25¢ into strong upward momentum, though their lifetime P&L is slightly negative despite a very high hit rate.

This bettor has traded across 96 events and 162 markets with a 94% resolved hit rate.
They are effectively buying Yes at 25¢ after the odds jumped 16 points in the last day.
The market is near resolution with $140k traded in 24h, making late tweet-count positioning more meaningful.

$3,066 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 78900067, $321,341
0x77c8...bc8c — Outcome 60203025, $171,632 (37% win rate)
0x9034...4375 — Outcome 60203025, $46,912 (34% win rate)
0x02b4...7092 — Outcome 60203025, $30,000
0xa638...1d87 — Outcome 60203025, $15,620 (54% win rate)
0xaf46...8c1d — Outcome 60203025, $10,170 (45% win rate)
0xde0f...57c1 — Outcome 60203025, $7,500
0x0888...e6e3 — Outcome 60203025, $6,000
0xa49b...7054 — Outcome 60203025, $5,547 (68% win rate)
0x9ac2...a3f6 — Outcome 60203025, $4,297

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

LYON beats FURIA

Covers 1 related market

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

ResolvedElon Musk # tweets May 8 - May 15, 2026?$10,115 tracked4 signalsCulturePoliticsTweet MarketsRewards Automation 200 4.5 50

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.