What is the Clarity Act 2026 prediction market about?

This market asks whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, also known as H.R.3633, will be passed by both the House and Senate and signed into law by the end of 2026.

When does the Clarity Act market resolve?

The market resolves after the deadline of December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, corresponding to January 1, 2027 in UTC time.

What would make this market resolve No?

It resolves No if the bill is not passed by both chambers and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Where is the official source for resolving this market?

The primary source is the Congress.gov legislation tracker for H.R.3633, with other official U.S. government information and credible reporting used if needed.

Part of: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Q: What would make this market resolve Yes?

It resolves Yes if H.R.3633 is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by the president before the deadline.

This prediction market tracks whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) will pass both chambers of Congress and be signed into U.S. law by December 31, 2026. The market’s live Yes/No odds reflect trader expectations around the bill’s path through Congress, with $3,000 in smart money tracked and 1 smart money signal currently recorded. Resolution is based primarily on Congress.gov and other official U.S. government sources.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

22 smart money signals detected, totaling $66,727.

Categories: Crypto, Trump, us law, Politics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial policy bettor

Experienced profitable cross-market trader bought $3,000 of No on a quiet crypto-legislation market, nearly matching the market's entire daily volume.

This bettor has traded 587 markets and is up about $45.6K lifetime.
Their $3,000 No buy was nearly 80% of the market’s daily volume.
Entry at 51¢ suggests they see the bill failing as slightly underpriced.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

86% winner exits YES

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and +$1.06M lifetime P&L sold Yes, effectively leaning No at 49¢ despite the trade being a modest position exit.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $1.06M lifetime.
They sold Yes at 51¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 49¢.
This looks like a sharp exit from a prior Yes position rather than a large new bet.

$1,081 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

New repeat wallet buys NO

A young repeat whale wallet is taking the contrarian No side on a crypto policy market, but there is no resolved track record yet.

This 22-day-old wallet has now triggered 11 large-bet alerts totaling about $24.8K.
The bettor is taking the contrarian No side at 40¢ while the market prices Yes around 62%.
Crypto legislation is a market where informed political positioning can matter.

$3,440 on No

Sharp 93% winner buys YES

Sharp wallet with a 93% resolved win rate and +$32.4k P&L bought Yes on the Clarity Act becoming law by end-2026.

This bettor has won 14 of 15 resolved trades and is up $32.4k lifetime.
They bought $2.9k of Yes at 59¢ on a political/regulatory market where informed views may matter.
Yes has already moved up 6.5 points in the past day, supporting recent momentum.

$2,909 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

93% winner buys YES

Sharp profitable wallet with a 93% resolved win rate bought $6.9k of Yes on a plausible policy-information market after a recent odds move.

This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $32k lifetime.
They bought $6.9k of Yes around 58–59¢, adding conviction as the market moved up 6.5% today.
Entry near 58¢ implies they still see meaningful upside before the 2026 deadline.

$6,909 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

Proven sharp buying No

Sharp wallet with an 80% resolved win rate and +$23.6k P&L is buying No on a crypto legislation market despite the market leaning Yes.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $23.6k lifetime.
They are buying No at 43¢ while the market has moved 8 points toward Yes this week.
Entry at 43¢ implies a contrarian view on the Clarity Act becoming law by end-2026.

$1,012 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

New repeat whale buying No

A 5-day-old wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early profit is adding a $5.1k No position on a plausible policy-information market.

This wallet is only 5 days old but has already made 6 large flagged bets totaling $19k.
It is up $3.5k so far, though the track record is still very small at 1 resolved win.
The bet aligns with recent market momentum: Yes is down 13 points this week.

$5,096 on No | Wallet win rate: 45%

New wallet scaling into NO

A 7-day-old repeat large bettor put $6.3k on No in a politically informed crypto-regulation market, and the market has already moved sharply in that direction.

This 7-day-old wallet has now triggered 10 large-bet alerts totaling $21.4k.
They bought $6.3k of No at 36–37¢, and No has already moved to 44¢.
The market moved 7 points toward No over the past day, matching this bettor’s direction.

$6,316 on No

Profitable new policy bettor

A repeat-flagged new wallet with early profit is adding to a crypto policy market after a sharp pullback, suggesting fresh conviction despite limited resolved history.

This new wallet is already up $2.4K after 9 resolved bets.
It has now been flagged 4 times, with $5.4K total in notable positions.
Buying Yes at 61¢ after a 13-point weekly drop suggests they see value in the pullback.

$1,937 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%

86% win-rate policy sharp

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate bought Yes on the Clarity Act market at 67¢.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up over $1.0M lifetime.
They are a major serial cross-market trader, active across 350 markets with $17.3M invested.
Entry at 67¢ suggests they still see upside despite the market already pricing Yes as likely.

$1,420 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%