What does the Cornell 7 felony sex crime market resolve on?

It resolves on whether at least one of the seven individuals named in the market description is charged with a felony sex crime by the market's resolution deadline.

When does the Cornell 7 prediction market resolve?

The listed resolution date is February 1, 2027, at 04:59 UTC.

Does the civil complaint mean anyone has been criminally charged?

No. The market description refers to allegations in a civil complaint. A civil complaint is distinct from a criminal charge, and the market concerns whether a qualifying criminal charge occurs.

What are the current odds for a felony charge?

Odds were not provided in the supplied metadata. Check the live market page for the current probability and trading prices.

Part of: Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?

Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?

This market asks whether any of seven individuals named as defendants in a September 2026 civil complaint concerning alleged events at Cornell will be charged with a felony sex crime by February 1, 2027. Current odds were not included in the supplied market data; PolySpotter tracks $3,398 in smart money and one signal.

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $133,167.

Categories: Courts, Culture, college, cornell, New York, Politics, Cornell 7

Notable Trades

Eight-wallet linked cluster backing No

Eight wallets sharing a funder are linked to this market, and this bettor added $1,800 to an existing No position, though their record is not clearly above the odds they typically pay.

Eight wallets tied to one funder are associated with $3,450 in bets on this market.
This bettor added $1,800 to an existing No position, increasing their stake to about $4,300.
The wallet has a 70% win rate, but its average winning entry price is 71%, so its record alone does not show a clear edge.

$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Eight-wallet cluster adding to No

An eight-wallet shared-funder cluster has accumulated $5,000 on No, and this bettor is adding to an existing position; the wallet's historical win rate is not clearly above its average winning entry odds.

Eight wallets linked by a shared funder have put $5,000 behind No across prior activity.
This bettor added to an existing No position, bringing its investment in the market to over $12,000.
The wallet has 72% wins across 637 resolved trades, but its 77¢ average winning entry price makes that record less compelling on its own.

$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable serial trader backs Yes

A historically profitable serial cross-market trader placed a $26,560 trade equivalent to buying Yes at 31¢, below the current 34¢ odds.

This bettor is up over $1 million across 124 resolved markets, with a 72% win rate.
A $26,560 sell of No is equivalent to buying Yes at 31¢, below the current 34¢ odds.
The wallet has traded across 78 events and more than 100 markets.

$26,560 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable whale adds to Yes position

A historically profitable high-volume trader added $13,902 to an existing Yes position, with a second commonly funded wallet also participating, though the wallet’s 62% win rate does not clearly beat its typical odds.

Added another $13,902 at 36¢ to an existing $38,896 Yes position, signaling increased conviction.
The wallet is up $740,627 across 1,702 resolved bets and has traded across 161 events.
Two commonly funded wallets put a combined $13,902 into this direction.

$23,684 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable whale adds to Yes position

Added another $13,902 at 36¢ to an existing $38,896 Yes position, signaling increased conviction.
The wallet is up $740,627 across 1,702 resolved bets and has traded across 161 events.
Two commonly funded wallets put a combined $13,902 into this direction.

$13,902 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable bettor-led No cluster

A roughly $31k coordinated No position includes a highly profitable bettor with a strong track record, alongside an 80.8x volume spike.

Three wallets put about $30,900 on No, including one bettor up over $1 million lifetime.
The largest bettor has won 72% of 124 resolved bets and is up $1.02 million.
Trading coincided with an 80.8x volume spike; No was bought at 60–63¢ and is now 64¢.

$30,897 on No

Profitable serial trader buying No

A proven high-volume trader with a 72% win rate and over $1 million in profit made a sizable No position as market volume spiked 88-fold.

This bettor has won 72% of 124 resolved bets and is up over $1 million.
They put $27,925 into No at 60–61¢, while market volume was 88 times its historical average.
The trader has placed $3.1 million across 77 events, suggesting an established cross-market strategy.

$27,926 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Seven-wallet linked No cluster

Seven wallets sharing a funder have put $3,398 behind No, and this profitable wallet is adding to its existing No position.

Seven wallets linked by a shared funder have collectively put $3,398 on No.
This wallet added to an existing No position, bringing its investment to about $9,257.
The wallet is up $28,725 across 139 resolved bets, though its 62% win rate is not clearly above its average winning entry price.

$3,398 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

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Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?

Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?$133,167 tracked8 signalsCourtsCulturecollegecornellNew YorkPoliticsCornell 7

In a civil complaint filed in September 2026, a Cornell University student alleged that she was drugged and sexually assaulted in October 2024 by multiple members of the Chi Phi fraternity at the fraternity's house in Ithaca, New York. Matthew Ingalls, Johnathan Newell, Winston Lee, Gillio Lopes, Diego Sarabia, Scott Norris and Scott Kretzschmar are the 7 individual defendants alleged in the September 2026 civil complaint to have participated in the alleged October 2024 sexual assault. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Matthew Ingalls, Johnathan Newell, Winston Lee, Gillio Lopes, Diego Sarabia, Scott Norris or Scott Kretzschmar with a felony sex crime between market creation and January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A felony sex crime refers to any offense classified as a felony and as a sex offense under the law of the charging jurisdiction, including any felony sex offense defined in Article 130 of the New York Penal Law. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.