What is the Samuel Alito retirement prediction market about?

This market asks whether Samuel Alito will announce that he is retiring from his role as Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court by December 31, 2026.

What counts as a “Yes” outcome for this Alito market?

A “Yes” resolution requires a qualifying announcement from Alito that he will retire. The retirement can be immediate, at the end of a Supreme Court term, or scheduled for a future date.

When does the Alito retirement market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying retirement announcement is made by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Where can I track Samuel Alito retirement odds?

You can follow this Polymarket-style prediction market on PolySpotter, including odds movement, smart money activity, and alerts from tracked political bettors.

How much smart money is tracked on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,014 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal for this Samuel Alito retirement market.

Part of: Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if Alito makes any qualifying retirement announcement by the deadline, even if the retirement takes effect later; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is currently tracking $1,014 in smart money activity and 1 signal on this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,014.

Categories: Supreme Court , Courts, Politics, Alito

Notable Trades

Profitable contrarian political bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a huge Yes price spike, though the position is currently against market momentum.

This bettor has a long track record: 1,140 resolved trades, 68% winners, and $53k in profit.
They are fading a massive move after Yes jumped about 55 points in a day.
Entry at 10¢ on No implies a high-upside contrarian bet if the retirement certainty is overstated.

$1,014 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%