Part of: Will Russia enter Khatnie by...?

Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Khatnie, Kharkiv Oblast, (50.121266° N, 37.565909° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,300.

Categories: Ukraine, Geopolitics, Ukraine Map, Politics

Notable Trades

Profitable quiet-market sharp

A highly profitable 83% win-rate wallet put a $1.3k No bet into an extremely quiet geopolitical market, dwarfing 24h volume.

  • This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $27.5k lifetime.
  • The $1.3k No bet is over 18x the market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
  • Entry at 90¢ is on the favored side, but the wallet’s track record makes the size notable.

$1,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Top Holders

  1. 0x165e...f5aa No, $1,444 (83% win rate)
  2. 0x6f67...102c Yes, $985
  3. 0xa58d...b9b8 Yes, $200 (39% win rate)
  4. 0x42b9...ded7 No, $161
  5. 0xec82...6eaa Yes, $100
  6. 0xc71b...e265 Yes, $88
  7. 0xa815...9cbe Yes, $81
  8. 0xc602...7fc1 Yes, $74 (39% win rate)
  9. 0xa3e2...fdf8 Yes, $53
  10. 0xf9e1...e46f Yes, $40

Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026?

20dWill Russia enter Khatnie by...?$1,300 tracked1 signalUkraineGeopoliticsUkraine MapPolitics
Yes
8¢
No
92¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Khatnie, Kharkiv Oblast, (50.121266° N, 37.565909° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “No
95¢
76¢
56¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026?

2h ago

$1,300 on No at 90¢

90¢92¢2¢