Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

This prediction market tracks whether Michelle Milthorpe will win the by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Farrer, expected on May 9, 2026. Traders use it to gauge real-time election odds on Polymarket for Milthorpe's chances against the rest of the field. If voting does not occur or the result is still not definitive by March 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other."

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,968.

Categories: Politics, Global Elections, Australia, Elections, by election, Farrer

Notable Trades

New wallet political whale

A 17-hour-old wallet made a nearly $4k buy in a thin political market, overwhelming recent volume and suggesting high-conviction positioning worth watching despite no track record yet.

  • A 17-hour-old wallet put nearly $4,000 into one side of this market on just its third position
  • This single trade was about 58x the market's prior 24-hour volume and hit a very wide order book
  • The bet came in a political market that had already been moving fast, with odds up 17.5 points in a day

$3,968 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0xdb49...340b — Yes, $5,042
  2. 0x2375...691f — No, $2,833
  3. 0xf4b4...3db2 — No, $1,886
  4. 0x75d1...7a5f — No, $1,752
  5. 0x9013...fc71 — Yes, $1,526 (100% win rate)
  6. 0xc684...2228 — No, $895
  7. 0x4edd...f6dc — Yes, $788
  8. 0x8b44...63fb — Yes, $778
  9. 0x7495...7fcf — No, $713
  10. 0xa5e3...4d7e — Yes, $447 (42% win rate)

Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

29d$3,968 tracked1 signalPoliticsGlobal ElectionsAustraliaElectionsby electionFarrer
Yes
63¢
No
38¢

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

Price History — “Yes”
69¢
53¢
37¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

6h ago

$3,968 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→63¢↓16¢
Michelle Milthorpe Farrer By-Election Odds | PolySpotter