Part of: Starmer officially leaves office by…?

Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?

This prediction market asks whether Keir Starmer will formally cease to be Prime Minister of the UK by 11:59 PM ET on July 17, 2026. It resolves “Yes” only if he officially leaves office under the relevant UK procedures by that deadline; a resignation announcement for a later date does not count. PolySpotter is tracking $3,700 in smart money and 1 signal on this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer formally ceases to be the Prime Minister of the UK by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, Keir Starmer must formally cease to hold the position of Prime Minister in accordance with the laws, rules, governing documents, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements (including resignation) of a future departure will not qualify. Any official departure by Keir Starmer will qualify regardless of the means or if a successor has been appointed by that date. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary changes to Keir Starmer’s duties as Prime Minister will not qualify. A suspension or leave qualifies only when Keir Starmer formally ceases to be Prime Minister. Indefinite suspensions will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,700.

Categories: UK Labour Leadership, UK, Starmer, Politics, Keir Starmer, United Kingdom, Labour

Notable Trades

88% serial cross-market winner

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 88% resolved win rate and +$249k P&L bought $3.7k of No despite a relatively thin, wide-spread market.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $249k lifetime.
  • They have traded 40 markets across 26 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • They put $3.7k on No in a market with only $6.1k liquidity and a wide 7¢ spread.

$3,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0x134a...9e42 No, $4,139 (88% win rate)
  2. 0x0bfb...26a7 Yes, $2,293
  3. 0xe8c4...395d No, $1,941 (96% win rate)
  4. 0x4344...f90d No, $1,479 (61% win rate)
  5. 0xc7d0...1f8a Yes, $1,308
  6. 0x45b2...cbc1 Yes, $1,250 (15% win rate)
  7. 0xe665...7d42 No, $1,144 (100% win rate)
  8. 0x0787...0ca3 No, $1,124
  9. 0xe1a3...24ea Yes, $1,087 (12% win rate)
  10. 0xe154...0b7f Yes, $1,006 (10% win rate)

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Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?

16dStarmer officially leaves office by…?$3,700 tracked1 signalUK Labour LeadershipUKStarmerPoliticsKeir StarmerUnited KingdomLabour
Yes
6¢
No
95¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer formally ceases to be the Prime Minister of the UK by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, Keir Starmer must formally cease to hold the position of Prime Minister in accordance with the laws, rules, governing documents, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements (including resignation) of a future departure will not qualify. Any official departure by Keir Starmer will qualify regardless of the means or if a successor has been appointed by that date. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary changes to Keir Starmer’s duties as Prime Minister will not qualify. A suspension or leave qualifies only when Keir Starmer formally ceases to be Prime Minister. Indefinite suspensions will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No
96¢
51¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?

5d ago

$3,700 on No at 89¢

89¢95¢6¢

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