Part of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

This Polymarket market tracks whether Anthropic’s private market valuation reaches or exceeds $800 billion by December 31, 2026, based on the Nasdaq Private Market NPM Price. The live odds reflect trader expectations for a major jump in Anthropic’s valuation, while PolySpotter currently tracks $2,700 in smart money activity, including a high-confidence No-side signal. The market resolves after the relevant NPM pricing window, with resolution scheduled for January 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,489.

Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, anthropic, Dario Amodei, Tech, Claude, Big Tech, AI

Notable Trades

95% winner buying No

A proven 95% winning wallet with positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a weak low-activity signal, making the bettor track record the key reason to surface it.

  • This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up $7.2K lifetime.
  • The $2.7K No buy was almost the full quiet-market scan volume, showing concentrated conviction.
  • Entry at 88¢ is a high-confidence bet that Anthropic will not reach an $800B valuation by the deadline.

$2,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

89% serial cross-market bettor

A highly experienced cross-market bettor with an 89% resolved win rate is making a fresh $5.8k No bet that is nearly 2x the market’s entire 24h volume.

  • This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $39.7k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 483 markets with $1.7M total volume, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
  • This $5.8k No buy is nearly 2x the market’s 24h volume, a large conviction bet in a thin market.

$5,789 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

Top Holders

  1. 0x3a8a...7699 No, $14,000 (63% win rate)
  2. 0xa61e...0abd No, $6,000 (36% win rate)
  3. 0x527f...69a3 Yes, $3,078
  4. 0xec2c...4676 Yes, $2,550
  5. 0x71ab...f015 Yes, $2,258 (65% win rate)
  6. 0x3764...c5eb Yes, $2,104 (63% win rate)
  7. 0x8454...331a Yes, $1,977 (91% win rate)
  8. 0xfc91...31eb Yes, $1,724 (83% win rate)
  9. 0x97f3...0eba Yes, $1,221 (41% win rate)
  10. 0xfd8d...038b Yes, $1,089

Related Theses

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Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

183dWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?$8,489 tracked2 signalsFinancePrivatesllmanthropicDario AmodeiTechClaudeBig TechAI
Yes
10¢
No
90¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “No
94¢
91¢
88¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

41d ago

$2,700 on No at 88¢

88¢90¢2¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

43d ago

$5,789 on No at 83¢

83¢90¢7¢

Related Theses