Part of: OpenAI’s Astra released by…?

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI will publicly release Astra—or a model confirmed to be the same model described in its announcement—by September 30, 2026. The market resolves Yes only if the model is available to the general public by the deadline; current price odds were not included in the provided data. One tracked smart-money signal shows a sharp bettor scaling into Yes, with $1,617 in smart money tracked.

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,617.

Categories: AI, gpt, Tech, OpenAI, sam altman, AI Releases, Astra

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor scaling into Yes

A high-win-rate bettor with a meaningful historical edge is adding to an existing Yes position with a trade representing nearly all recent market volume.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 32 resolved positions while typically entering around 52%, suggesting a substantial historical edge.
  • The $1,617 purchase represents 96.7% of the market’s 24-hour volume and adds to an existing $2,229 Yes position.
  • The trade buys Yes at 73¢, implying the bettor sees further value despite the market already pricing a 72% chance.

$1,617 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0xed71...d7ce Yes, $5,972 (77% win rate)
  2. 0xf5c4...0926 Yes, $4,708 (70% win rate)
  3. 0x524d...4495 No, $4,023 (75% win rate)
  4. 0x2b67...b814 No, $3,070 (72% win rate)
  5. 0x3814...17bc Yes, $2,229 (75% win rate)
  6. 0x7fd3...e662 No, $2,000 (42% win rate)
  7. 0x7365...64da Yes, $1,935 (55% win rate)
  8. 0x5a7b...e9eb Yes, $1,852 (70% win rate)
  9. 0x819f...f3e7 No, $1,522
  10. 0x369a...0b41 No, $1,206

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Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?

36dOpenAI’s Astra released by…?$1,617 tracked1 signalAIgptTechOpenAIsam altmanAI ReleasesAstra
Yes
78¢
No
23¢

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “Yes
87¢
78¢
69¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?

5d ago

$1,617 on Yes at 73¢

73¢78¢5¢

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