Part of: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
This prediction market asks whether the official CME settlement price for front-month Crude Oil (CL) futures will reach or exceed $120 on any trading day by the final trading day of June 2026. It resolves to “Yes” if CL settles at or above $120 before the deadline, and “No” otherwise. PolySpotter currently tracks $3,288 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal related to this oil market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $23,956.
Categories: Commodities, NYMEX Crude Oil Futures, Oil
Notable Trades
Profitable repeat oil bettor
A young but already profitable wallet is adding a multi-market crude oil thesis with meaningful size in a relatively thin, wide-spread market.
- This young wallet is already up about $22K lifetime and has been flagged 13 times for larger bets.
- They are spreading a $17.7K crude-oil thesis across 6 related markets, not just making a one-off bet.
- This $3.3K buy was a large share of recent volume in a wide-spread market, suggesting conviction.
$3,288 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable oil cross-market trader
Profitable high-volume wallet is extending a broad cross-market oil thesis across 8 related markets, though this specific trade is modest in size.
- This wallet is up $260K lifetime while trading over $7.7M in volume.
- They have placed $99K across 8 related oil markets, suggesting a broad thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 50¢ on No implies roughly even odds on crude staying below $120 through June 2026.
$2,316 on No | Wallet win rate: 41%
Profitable oil cross-market sharp
Profitable 85% winner is building a cross-market oil thesis, effectively buying Yes at 59¢ as this market has rallied sharply.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $415K lifetime.
- They have put $8.2K across 3 related oil markets, suggesting a broader crude-oil thesis.
- Entry at 59¢ follows a 16-point weekly move toward Yes.
$1,233 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Serial cross-market 85% winner
Strong sharp-wallet signal: an 85% lifetime winner with major cross-market experience is effectively buying Yes at 59¢ across this event.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $415,597 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.34M deployed across 92 related markets.
- Selling No at 41¢ is effectively buying Yes at 59¢, showing confidence despite a 16.5% weekly price move.
$1,222 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Profitable oil thesis trader
Profitable wallet is expressing a $101k cross-market crude oil thesis across 8 related markets, buying No on $120 by June at 49¢.
- This wallet is up $266k lifetime and has traded over $7.5M on resolved markets.
- They have placed $101k across 8 related crude oil markets, suggesting a broader oil-price thesis.
- Buying No at 49¢ implies they think crude is less likely than the market says to hit $120 by June.
$5,382 on No | Wallet win rate: 41%
New wallet oil thesis
A repeat-flagged new wallet is building a cross-market crude oil thesis, buying Yes after a 10-point weekly move despite no resolved track record yet.
- This new wallet has now been flagged 18 times, with $52K of notable bets tracked.
- It is betting across 3 related oil markets, suggesting a broader crude-price thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Entry at 56¢ comes after Yes moved up 10 points this week, showing momentum behind the position.
$1,590 on Yes
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$1,500 | Wallet win rate: 70%
92% win-rate oil bettor
A bettor with a 92% win rate and $171.8k profit is building a cross-market thesis on crude oil, adding a nearly $2k No position while the market has recently sold off hard.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $171.8k lifetime
- They have placed $44.3k across 3 related crude oil markets, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 78¢ after this market fell 24 points in a week, aligning with strong recent momentum
$1,947 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
92% win-rate oil bettor
A proven sharp wallet with a 92% win rate is building the same thesis across three related crude oil targets, buying No at 78¢ while the market has already sold off sharply this week.
- This bettor wins 92% of their resolved trades and is up $171.8k lifetime.
- They placed a $3.7k bet as part of a $44.3k three-market crude oil thesis.
- They bought No at 78¢ after this market fell 24 points in a week, adding to the bearish move.
$3,713 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
92% win-rate oil bettor
A proven sharp wallet with a 92% win rate is betting across three related oil markets, and this new No position adds a clear event-level thesis despite only moderate size.
- This bettor wins 92% of their resolved trades and is up $171.8k lifetime
- They have put $42.3k across 3 related oil markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 78¢ while the market has already moved down to 75¢, backing the view that $120 oil by June is unlikely
$1,766 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Top Holders
- 0x4bbe...2cf3 — Yes, $81,739 (78% win rate)
- 0xe734...4f0c — No, $32,253 (41% win rate)
- 0x4d3e...783b — No, $30,472 (57% win rate)
- 0xb47a...6d60 — No, $27,716 (84% win rate)
- 0x4047...7293 — No, $26,157 (54% win rate)
- 0x72a0...c059 — No, $19,141 (47% win rate)
- 0xe87f...7d85 — Yes, $11,943 (71% win rate)
- 0x1664...a0ce — Yes, $11,851
- 0x5f45...a77a — Yes, $11,830 (62% win rate)
- 0xff30...4a37 — No, $10,144 (62% win rate)
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