Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
This Polymarket tracks whether Anthropic will own the AI model ranked third on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the time the leaderboard is checked on April 30, 2026. Resolution is based on the "Text Arena | Overall" score column with style control off, using the company behind the model holding the third-highest arena score. Traders use this market to gauge Anthropic’s odds against rival AI labs in the race for top model rankings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $23,880.
Categories: Tech, Big Tech, AI, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
94% win-rate sharp
A proven sharp wallet with a 94% win rate bought No at 74¢ after a sharp 35-point weekly drop in Anthropic’s odds, making this a credible follow despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 94% of 687 resolved trades and is up $73k lifetime.
- They bought No at 74¢ after Anthropic’s odds fell 32 points in a day and 35 points in a week.
- A 74¢ entry means they still see enough edge even after the market moved hard.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
78% winner flips to No
Profitable high-volume wallet with a 78% win rate flipped into No after a major price move, adding a fresh directional view in a moderately thin market.
- This bettor wins 78% of their resolved trades across 301 markets and is up $20.8k overall.
- They bought No at 80¢ right after a sharp move, suggesting they think Anthropic is now overpriced on this market.
- This is a fresh position change: they previously closed a Yes stake and are now backing the opposite side.
$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
3-wallet AI thesis cluster
Three wallets piled $20k into Yes during a massive volume spike and sharp weekly move, suggesting coordinated conviction behind Anthropic holding the #3 spot.
- Three wallets bought the same side within minutes, putting in $20.2k total.
- The market's volume suddenly jumped about 296x normal, and price is up 24 points this week.
- One wallet alone bought $17.6k at 72¢, a very concentrated bet in a market with only $7.8k of liquidity.
$20,180 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $30,346
- 0xc6dd...4b9f — Yes, $7,505 (67% win rate)
- 0xb8ad...ff58 — Yes, $6,390
- 0x0042...321e — Yes, $3,160 (41% win rate)
- 0x5fdf...28a2 — No, $2,717 (94% win rate)
- 0x33db...417a — Yes, $2,674 (52% win rate)
- 0x36b4...ac80 — No, $2,079 (25% win rate)
- 0xa7d2...f954 — Yes, $1,777
- 0x250c...2774 — Yes, $1,700
- 0xaee8...1154 — Yes, $1,542
