Part of: Mexico Legislative Election Winner
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?
This Polymarket market asks whether the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) will win the greatest number of seats in Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies in the June 6, 2027 legislative election. PolySpotter is tracking $4,202 in smart money and 2 recent smart money signals on this market, with live odds available on the market page. The market resolves based on the party with the most Chamber of Deputies seats, or to “Other” if definitive results are not known by March 31, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET.
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,202.
Categories: Mexico, Politics, Mexico Election, Global Elections, Elections, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50, Main Election, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Profitable serial politics bettor
Moderately worth surfacing: a high-volume, profitable serial cross-market bettor bought a meaningful Yes position on a quiet long-dated Mexico election market after a recent price dip.
- This bettor has a large track record: 1,819 resolved trades and $47,600 in lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 35 events, suggesting this is part of a broader political betting strategy.
- The $2,067 buy was larger than recent market activity and came after Morena odds fell about 8 points this week.
$2,135 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable serial politics bettor
Moderately worth surfacing: a high-volume, profitable serial cross-market bettor bought a meaningful Yes position on a quiet long-dated Mexico election market after a recent price dip.
- This bettor has a large track record: 1,819 resolved trades and $47,600 in lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 35 events, suggesting this is part of a broader political betting strategy.
- The $2,067 buy was larger than recent market activity and came after Morena odds fell about 8 points this week.
$2,067 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0x0a22...69ba — No, $3,237
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,885
- 0x1f0a...f7aa — Yes, $1,849 (70% win rate)
- 0xb8ad...ff58 — Yes, $1,262
- 0x6c10...df5c — Yes, $842 (66% win rate)
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Yes, $580
- 0x4c06...df69 — No, $429
- 0x1697...d711 — No, $360
- 0x21ff...0d71 — Yes, $300
- 0x52eb...67ac — Yes, $300
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