Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

This prediction market asks whether a ceasefire between Israel and Iran will remain in effect through October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves Yes if the ceasefire continues and No if either country takes a qualifying military action, such as an air strike, against the other. PolySpotter tracks $6,432 in smart money across one signal, including traders scaling into Yes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,432.

Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Serial trader scales into Yes

A highly active serial cross-market trader with a 79% win rate is adding $6.4K to an existing Yes position, dominating daily volume despite limited demonstrated edge at current odds.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 693 resolved trades across 57 events.
  • The $6,432 purchase adds to an existing Yes position and represents roughly 70% of daily market volume.
  • The trader is positioning across three markets in the same Israel-Iran event, while Yes has risen 16.5% over the past week.

$6,432 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

91% winner scaling into Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position amid strong event-level conviction.

  • This bettor has won 91% of 170 resolved trades and is up $42,476.
  • The wallet has traded 13 markets in this Israel-Iran event, with $139,664 in total positioning.
  • This $3,000 purchase adds to an existing Yes position, signaling continued conviction at 73¢.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 No, $34,937 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x6bab...0fe5 Yes, $13,105 (73% win rate)
  3. 0xc961...db04 No, $12,000 (61% win rate)
  4. 0x6d9f...9790 Yes, $11,401 (61% win rate)
  5. 0x8597...daee Yes, $8,707 (79% win rate)
  6. 0xeb22...808a No, $5,328 (34% win rate)
  7. 0x162f...798d Yes, $5,000 (67% win rate)
  8. 0xeb49...693e Yes, $4,110 (91% win rate)
  9. 0x62cf...5826 Yes, $4,000 (66% win rate)
  10. 0x6c17...6a7e Yes, $2,718 (77% win rate)

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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

68dIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$9,432 tracked2 signalsIsrael ElectionGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x Iran
Yes
75¢
No
26¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
77¢
75¢
72¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

7d ago

$6,432 on Yes at 74¢

74¢75¢1¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

8d ago

$3,000 on Yes at 73¢

73¢75¢2¢

Related Theses