Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
126 signals across 13 markets · $672,166 tracked · resolves Aug 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date, with traders pricing the chance of a “Yes” or “No” outcome. PolySpotter is currently tracking $2,053 in smart money activity and one recent signal tied to a sharp geopolitical bettor.
Markets (13)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?38 signals · $250,880 tracked
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?20 signals · $139,996 tracked
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?19 signals · $72,185 tracked
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?12 signals · $51,438 tracked
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?9 signals · $46,889 tracked
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?8 signals · $38,379 tracked
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?6 signals · $21,287 tracked
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?5 signals · $20,342 tracked
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?4 signals · $15,816 tracked
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?2 signals · $5,928 tracked
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?1 signal · $5,659 tracked
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?1 signal · $1,719 tracked
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?1 signal · $1,647 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Six-wallet funded cluster backs No
A seven-wallet coordinated move toward No, including six linked wallets and highly profitable bettors, is corroborated by a 12-point daily decline in Yes odds.
$11,253Score: 10.3 - Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.
$3,045Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 10.1 - 94% winner scales into coordinated Yes
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader added to Yes alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster and major volume spike.
$2,800Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 10.1 - 94% winner adds to Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a Yes position at 56¢ while belonging to a 19-wallet funded cluster.
$1,906Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 10.1 - 94% winner scales into coordinated Yes
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader added to Yes alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster and major volume spike.
$1,800Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 10.1 - Event-wide cross-market bettor
A bettor with substantial event-wide positioning made $5,716 of fresh Yes purchases across a market experiencing a 35.6x volume spike, though the trader’s historical edge is modest.
$4,705Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 10.0 - Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.
$3,285Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 10.0 - Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.
$2,094Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 10.0 - Six-wallet cluster backing Yes
A linked six-wallet cluster is positioning alongside a serial cross-market trader who has deployed $89,713 across nine markets in this event, though the individual win rate is not especially sharp relative to entry prices.
$1,040Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 10.0 - Funded cluster scaling into Yes
A six-wallet funded cluster and coordinated cross-market positioning support this trader's continued Yes exposure despite a 66% market price.
$3,599Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 10.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xe3cb28…ac21$224,582 · 4 markets · 14 alerts · 65% wins
- 0xe23495…304a$173,415 · 8 markets · 50 alerts · 66% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$28,275 · 7 markets · 13 alerts · 76% wins
- 0xddf449…2680$21,509 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 95% wins
- 0x85a858…9281$18,213 · 4 markets · 5 alerts · 92% wins
- 0x9c987f…f4f4$17,930 · 4 markets · 8 alerts · 94% wins
- 0xf55927…f462$15,000 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 94% wins
- 0x8c66e2…44f3$12,626 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 85% wins
- 0x7bc141…8db4$8,876 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0x2974bd…9c23$7,294 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 91% wins
FAQs
What are the Israel-Iran ceasefire odds on Polymarket?
The event reflects market-implied odds on whether the ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues through July 25. Prices move as traders react to news, military developments, and new buying or selling activity.
What outcomes are being traded in this event?
This event currently centers on whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through July 25. Traders can take positions on the market resolving “Yes” if the ceasefire remains in effect or “No” if a qualifying military action ends it before the deadline.
Is smart money betting on the Israel-Iran ceasefire market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,053 in smart money activity across this event, including one recent signal from a sharp geopolitical bettor. These signals can help users see when experienced traders are taking positions.
When does the Israel-Iran ceasefire market resolve?
The listed child market is based on whether the ceasefire remains in effect through July 25, according to the market’s resolution rules. The broader event page may remain available until final exchange settlement and reporting are complete.
How does PolySpotter help track this prediction market?
PolySpotter highlights smart money signals, large or notable trades, and market movement so users can compare Polymarket odds with the behavior of sharp bettors following the event.