Part of: Puebla Congress Election Winner

Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Puebla Congress election?

This market asks whether Morena will win more seats than any other party in Puebla’s 41-member state Congress election on June 6, 2027. It resolves based on the party winning the most seats; current odds were not included in the supplied market data, which shows one smart-money signal and $1,613 tracked.

Legislative elections to elect the 41 members of the Congress of the State of Puebla are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Puebla as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Electoral del Estado de Puebla. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Electoral del Estado de Puebla, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Puebla and Mexico, including the Instituto Electoral del Estado de Puebla (https://www.ieepuebla.org.mx/).

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,613.

Categories: Mexico, Politics, Elections, Main Election, Mexico Election, Global Elections

Notable Trades

New wallet scaling into YES

A very new wallet has made repeated, sizable YES bets in a thin political market, adding to its position as the price rises.

  • A wallet less than an hour old has put about $3,900 into YES across two positions.
  • The latest $1,613 buy adds to an existing YES position, while the market price has risen from 71¢ to about 80¢.
  • The market has only about $1,752 in total volume, making this a sizable position relative to trading activity.

$1,613 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8314...0b88 — Yes, $2,275 (100% win rate)
  2. 0x7803...b7d2 — No, $1,200 (75% win rate)
  3. 0xfd39...9ec8 — No, $500
  4. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $423
  5. 0x21ff...0d71 — No, $272
  6. 0x1f0a...f7aa — Yes, $245 (73% win rate)
  7. 0xad53...ef24 — No, $182
  8. 0xa3e2...fdf8 — Yes, $84
  9. 0xa815...9cbe — No, $51
  10. 0xf040...d11f — Yes, $39

Related Theses

Neither company joins the list

Covers 2 related markets

Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Puebla Congress election?

Puebla Congress Election Winner$1,613 tracked1 signalMexicoPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionMexico ElectionGlobal Elections
Yes
91¢
No
9¢

Legislative elections to elect the 41 members of the Congress of the State of Puebla are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Puebla as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Electoral del Estado de Puebla. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Electoral del Estado de Puebla, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Puebla and Mexico, including the Instituto Electoral del Estado de Puebla (https://www.ieepuebla.org.mx/).

Price History — “Yes”
95¢
92¢
88¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Puebla Congress election?

2026-10-19 23:27 UTC

$1,613 on Yes at 71¢

71¢→91¢↑20¢

Related Theses