Part of: Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI’s private market valuation, based on the Nasdaq Private Market NPM Price, will reach or exceed $1.5 trillion at any point through December 31, 2026. It resolves after the valuation window closes, with final resolution expected on January 1, 2027, using NPM-published trading-day data. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,878 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,251.

Categories: Big Tech, gpt, llm, chatgpt, Tech, Finance, AI, Privates, Altman

Notable Trades

14-wallet funded cluster

A 14-wallet funded cluster is taking a bearish OpenAI valuation position across multiple related markets, with this trade equivalent to buying No at 49¢.

  • 14 wallets tied to the same funder are betting this OpenAI valuation theme.
  • The same wallet cluster has put $25.4K across 4 related markets, suggesting a coordinated bearish view.
  • This trade is effectively buying No at 49¢ on a thin market with only about $2.4K liquidity.

$1,878 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market thesis on OpenAI valuation, though this specific trade is modest in size.

  • This bettor is up about $865k lifetime across nearly 1,000 resolved markets.
  • They have put about $20k across 4 related OpenAI valuation markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • The market has moved up 7.5% today, so this buy is aligned with recent momentum.

$1,373 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%

Top Holders

  1. 0xf797...0bf2 No, $3,637 (48% win rate)
  2. 0x76aa...c4f4 Yes, $3,181 (100% win rate)
  3. 0x23d1...743a Yes, $2,220
  4. 0x4337...8882 No, $1,836 (75% win rate)
  5. 0xa962...8978 Yes, $1,658
  6. 0x7707...0180 Yes, $1,213
  7. 0x5a21...9318 No, $1,004 (49% win rate)
  8. 0x1543...baaf No, $789 (65% win rate)
  9. 0xcd96...cbdc No, $766
  10. 0xc7d0...1f8a No, $665

Related Theses

Anthropic tops three trillion

Covers 4 related markets

Starmer exits by May 2026

Covers 3 related markets

OpenAI valuation soars past $1.5T

Covers 4 related markets

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

183dWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?$3,251 tracked2 signalsBig TechgptllmchatgptTechFinanceAIPrivatesAltman
Yes
38¢
No
62¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “No
68¢
60¢
52¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

21d ago

$1,878 on No at 49¢

49¢62¢13¢

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

42d ago

$1,373 on Yes at 27¢

27¢38¢11¢

Related Theses