Part of: Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $71,240.
Categories: Elections, Politics, US Election, Primaries, primary elections, Democratic Primary, Michigan Primary, Senate Primary, August 4 Primaries
Notable Trades
Profitable trader scales into Yes
A profitable serial trader added $13.7K to an existing Yes position amid a 110x volume spike and a sharp price rise.
- This trader added $13,675 to an existing Yes position at 87¢, signaling increased conviction.
- The market saw a 110x surge over its historical trading volume, while Yes rose 14.5% in one day.
- The wallet is up $254,000 across 323 resolved bets and has traded across 45 events.
$13,698 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable trader scales into Yes
A profitable serial trader added $13.7K to an existing Yes position amid a 110x volume spike and a sharp price rise.
- This trader added $13,675 to an existing Yes position at 87¢, signaling increased conviction.
- The market saw a 110x surge over its historical trading volume, while Yes rose 14.5% in one day.
- The wallet is up $254,000 across 323 resolved bets and has traded across 45 events.
$13,675 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Sharp bettor leads three-wallet Yes push
A highly profitable bettor with an 84% win rate joined two other wallets in a $21,959 one-sided Yes push, coinciding with an 8-point daily price increase.
- The lead bettor wins 84% of 171 resolved trades, is up $1.14 million, and bought Yes at 78¢–84¢.
- Three wallets committed nearly $22,000 to Yes, representing roughly 27% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
- The market rose 8 points over the past day, corroborating the coordinated buying and the lead wallet’s apparent reversal from No to Yes.
$21,959 on Yes
84% win-rate serial trader buys Yes
A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and substantial edge bought Yes at 72% in a major Michigan primary market.
- This bettor has won 84% of 170 resolved positions and is up $1.13 million lifetime.
- The trader typically wins from entries averaging 58%, making a 72¢ purchase a meaningful conviction bet rather than routine favorite-buying.
- They actively trade across 50 events and 67 markets, including another market tied to this event.
$6,345 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
84% win-rate serial trader buys Yes
A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and substantial edge bought Yes at 72% in a major Michigan primary market.
- This bettor has won 84% of 170 resolved positions and is up $1.13 million lifetime.
- The trader typically wins from entries averaging 58%, making a 72¢ purchase a meaningful conviction bet rather than routine favorite-buying.
- They actively trade across 50 events and 67 markets, including another market tied to this event.
$6,921 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
84% win-rate serial trader buys Yes
A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and substantial edge bought Yes at 72% in a major Michigan primary market.
- This bettor has won 84% of 170 resolved positions and is up $1.13 million lifetime.
- The trader typically wins from entries averaging 58%, making a 72¢ purchase a meaningful conviction bet rather than routine favorite-buying.
- They actively trade across 50 events and 67 markets, including another market tied to this event.
$1,187 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable political bettor
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 75% winner with positive lifetime P&L bought Yes despite already-high odds on a long-dated political market.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $26.9K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 85¢ despite high odds, showing conviction that El-Sayed remains underpriced.
- The market has moved +10 points this week, so this trade follows clear momentum.
$1,280 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable political bettor
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 75% winner with positive lifetime P&L bought Yes despite already-high odds on a long-dated political market.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $26.9K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 85¢ despite high odds, showing conviction that El-Sayed remains underpriced.
- The market has moved +10 points this week, so this trade follows clear momentum.
$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable 76% winner buying Yes
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is buying Yes despite only a moderate low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up about $28,000 lifetime.
- They put $2,279 on Yes at 83¢, a large bet versus the market’s quiet baseline volume.
- The market has momentum, with Yes up 8 points today and 12 points this week.
$2,098 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable 76% winner buying Yes
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is buying Yes despite only a moderate low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up about $28,000 lifetime.
- They put $2,279 on Yes at 83¢, a large bet versus the market’s quiet baseline volume.
- The market has momentum, with Yes up 8 points today and 12 points this week.
$2,279 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0x44c1...ebc1 — Outcome 20535370, $277,664 (60% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 20535370, $146,218
- 0x44b7...2e99 — Outcome 20535370, $104,817 (82% win rate)
- 0x47ab...95df — Outcome 20535370, $44,000 (74% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 20535370, $39,431 (80% win rate)
- 0x1a2f...647a — Outcome 20535370, $30,814 (67% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 20535370, $28,437 (69% win rate)
- 0x1ce4...fbd1 — Outcome 20535370, $25,000
- 0xff4b...6555 — Outcome 20535370, $22,212
- 0x7bb2...682c — Outcome 20535370, $22,000 (69% win rate)
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