Part of: Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $71,240.

Categories: Elections, Politics, US Election, Primaries, primary elections, Democratic Primary, Michigan Primary, Senate Primary, August 4 Primaries

Notable Trades

Profitable trader scales into Yes

A profitable serial trader added $13.7K to an existing Yes position amid a 110x volume spike and a sharp price rise.

This trader added $13,675 to an existing Yes position at 87¢, signaling increased conviction.
The market saw a 110x surge over its historical trading volume, while Yes rose 14.5% in one day.
The wallet is up $254,000 across 323 resolved bets and has traded across 45 events.

$13,698 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Profitable trader scales into Yes

A profitable serial trader added $13.7K to an existing Yes position amid a 110x volume spike and a sharp price rise.

This trader added $13,675 to an existing Yes position at 87¢, signaling increased conviction.
The market saw a 110x surge over its historical trading volume, while Yes rose 14.5% in one day.
The wallet is up $254,000 across 323 resolved bets and has traded across 45 events.

$13,675 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Sharp bettor leads three-wallet Yes push

A highly profitable bettor with an 84% win rate joined two other wallets in a $21,959 one-sided Yes push, coinciding with an 8-point daily price increase.

The lead bettor wins 84% of 171 resolved trades, is up $1.14 million, and bought Yes at 78¢–84¢.
Three wallets committed nearly $22,000 to Yes, representing roughly 27% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
The market rose 8 points over the past day, corroborating the coordinated buying and the lead wallet’s apparent reversal from No to Yes.

$21,959 on Yes

84% win-rate serial trader buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and substantial edge bought Yes at 72% in a major Michigan primary market.

This bettor has won 84% of 170 resolved positions and is up $1.13 million lifetime.
The trader typically wins from entries averaging 58%, making a 72¢ purchase a meaningful conviction bet rather than routine favorite-buying.
They actively trade across 50 events and 67 markets, including another market tied to this event.

$6,345 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

84% win-rate serial trader buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and substantial edge bought Yes at 72% in a major Michigan primary market.

This bettor has won 84% of 170 resolved positions and is up $1.13 million lifetime.
The trader typically wins from entries averaging 58%, making a 72¢ purchase a meaningful conviction bet rather than routine favorite-buying.
They actively trade across 50 events and 67 markets, including another market tied to this event.

$6,921 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

84% win-rate serial trader buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and substantial edge bought Yes at 72% in a major Michigan primary market.

This bettor has won 84% of 170 resolved positions and is up $1.13 million lifetime.
The trader typically wins from entries averaging 58%, making a 72¢ purchase a meaningful conviction bet rather than routine favorite-buying.
They actively trade across 50 events and 67 markets, including another market tied to this event.

$1,187 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable political bettor

Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 75% winner with positive lifetime P&L bought Yes despite already-high odds on a long-dated political market.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $26.9K lifetime.
They bought Yes at 85¢ despite high odds, showing conviction that El-Sayed remains underpriced.
The market has moved +10 points this week, so this trade follows clear momentum.

$1,280 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable political bettor

Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 75% winner with positive lifetime P&L bought Yes despite already-high odds on a long-dated political market.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $26.9K lifetime.
They bought Yes at 85¢ despite high odds, showing conviction that El-Sayed remains underpriced.
The market has moved +10 points this week, so this trade follows clear momentum.

$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable 76% winner buying Yes

Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is buying Yes despite only a moderate low-activity signal.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up about $28,000 lifetime.
They put $2,279 on Yes at 83¢, a large bet versus the market’s quiet baseline volume.
The market has momentum, with Yes up 8 points today and 12 points this week.

$2,098 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable 76% winner buying Yes

Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is buying Yes despite only a moderate low-activity signal.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up about $28,000 lifetime.
They put $2,279 on Yes at 83¢, a large bet versus the market’s quiet baseline volume.
The market has momentum, with Yes up 8 points today and 12 points this week.

$2,279 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

0x44c1...ebc1 — Outcome 20535370, $277,664 (60% win rate)
0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 20535370, $146,218
0x44b7...2e99 — Outcome 20535370, $104,817 (82% win rate)
0x47ab...95df — Outcome 20535370, $44,000 (74% win rate)
0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 20535370, $39,431 (80% win rate)
0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 20535370, $28,437 (70% win rate)
0x1ce4...fbd1 — Outcome 20535370, $25,000
0xff4b...6555 — Outcome 20535370, $22,212
0x7bb2...682c — Outcome 20535370, $22,000 (69% win rate)
0xa5a7...a1c7 — Outcome 20535370, $16,442

Related Theses

Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency

Covers 2 related markets

McKinney will replace Thanedar

Covers 2 related markets

Panama Croatia corners stay low

Covers 1 related market

El-Sayed will lose Wayne County

Covers 1 related market

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

ResolvedMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner$71,240 tracked10 signalsElectionsPoliticsUS ElectionPrimariesprimary electionsDemocratic PrimaryMichigan PrimarySenate PrimaryAugust 4 Primaries

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Price History — “Yes”

102¢

92¢

81¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction