Part of: World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
This prediction market asks whether the Netherlands will reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It resolves Yes if the Netherlands advances to that stage, and No if they are mathematically eliminated or if the tournament timeline conditions prevent resolution by July 17, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,184 in smart money activity on this market, including 1 smart money signal and recent sharp betting alerts on both Yes and fading Yes positions.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,495.
Categories: Soccer, Sports, FIFA World Cup, world cup, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Team Props, Tournament Futures
Notable Trades
Sharp wallet fades Yes
Sharp wallet with an 89% resolved-bet win rate is exiting Netherlands Yes across a correlated World Cup position, implying a No lean at 41¢.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $13.9K lifetime.
- They sold Yes after previously entering at 64¢, suggesting they no longer like Netherlands at current odds.
- The equivalent copy is buying No at 41¢, a contrarian stance against the market’s 60% Yes price.
$1,184 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
82% winner fading Yes
Sharp 82% lifetime winner is reducing Netherlands exposure while trading heavily across related World Cup markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $79.6K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $519K staked across 217 events.
- This sell converts to buying No at 38¢, though it appears to be an exit from a prior Yes position rather than a fresh full-size No bet.
$1,825 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
87% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with an 87% record and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes at 64¢ on a market already moving upward.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $2,890 lifetime.
- Their past bets beat market odds by 34 percentage points on average, a strong copy-trade signal.
- They bought Yes at 64¢ while the market is up 13 points this week.
$1,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Profitable serial sports bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor added a meaningful Yes position in a relatively thin World Cup market.
- This bettor has won 63% of 122 resolved bets and is up $51k lifetime.
- They are a heavy cross-market trader, with $363k bet across 106 markets.
- The $1.3k buy was large for this quiet market, exceeding recent 24h volume in the alert window.
$1,315 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable serial sports bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor added a meaningful Yes position in a relatively thin World Cup market.
- This bettor has won 63% of 122 resolved bets and is up $51k lifetime.
- They are a heavy cross-market trader, with $363k bet across 106 markets.
- The $1.3k buy was large for this quiet market, exceeding recent 24h volume in the alert window.
$1,261 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market bettor bought Yes in a relatively quiet World Cup futures market, with the trade large versus market activity.
- This bettor has won 65% of 565 resolved bets and is up $68.8k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 42 events, suggesting this is part of a broader sports thesis.
- The $1.7k buy is meaningful in a market with only $6.5k total volume and $9.4k liquidity.
$1,710 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
Top Holders
- 0xb619...5068 — Outcome 37557394, $5,950 (53% win rate)
- 0x3ae4...0168 — Outcome 37557394, $3,978
- 0x0121...f722 — Outcome 37557394, $2,818 (46% win rate)
- 0x08cd...f35f — Outcome 37557394, $2,718 (87% win rate)
- 0x98d9...65c9 — Outcome 37557394, $2,694
- 0x9ab3...f88e — Outcome 37557394, $2,124 (64% win rate)
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 37557394, $1,627
- 0x032e...2a9e — Outcome 37557394, $1,602 (71% win rate)
- 0xaa6b...8189 — Outcome 37557394, $1,492
- 0x48ec...8f36 — Outcome 37557394, $1,304
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