Part of: Berlin State Elections: Grüne # of seats?
Will Grüne win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
This Berlin election prediction market asks whether the Grüne party will win between 35 and 39 seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin. The market resolves on September 20, 2026, based on the party’s officially attributed seat total; PolySpotter currently tracks $2,884 in smart money and one signal, including a recent whale move toward No.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Grüne party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,884.
Categories: Berlin, Germany, Politics, Elections, German Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Whale scaling into No
A serial cross-market trader added a substantial No position in a very thin market, with the trade exceeding ten times recent daily volume despite only a moderate historical win rate.
- The $2,884 No purchase was more than 10 times the market's entire 24-hour volume.
- This trader has participated in 76 events and is up $103,548 across 2,560 resolved bets.
- The wallet is adding to an existing No position, signaling continued conviction well before the September 2026 election.
$2,884 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,324
- 0x5a21...9318 — Yes, $700 (62% win rate)
- 0xc602...7fc1 — Yes, $560 (43% win rate)
- 0x122c...fbed — No, $477 (63% win rate)
- 0x21ff...0d71 — No, $234
- 0x629b...995a — Yes, $213 (53% win rate)
- 0x0213...82f6 — Yes, $188 (56% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $160
- 0xcf37...993f — Yes, $108
- 0xa815...9cbe — Yes, $101
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