Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether the Federal Reserve will make no 25 basis point rate cuts at all during 2026. The market counts all 2026 cuts, including emergency cuts outside scheduled FOMC meetings and any move at the December meeting, and it resolves after year-end on December 31, 2026. Traders use this market to price the odds of the Fed holding rates steady for the entire year.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,520.

Categories: Business, Fed Rates, Jerome Powell, Economic Policy, Fed, Economy, Finance

Notable Trades

91% macro winner

A serial macro trader with a 91% win rate and $1.9M profit is adding a fresh 40¢ Yes position across multiple related Fed markets, making this worth following despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $1.9M lifetime across 821 bets
  • They trade Fed-related markets repeatedly across 126 events, suggesting a real macro process rather than a one-off punt
  • Bought Yes at 40¢, a relatively cheap entry in a liquid market with tight spreads

$1,030 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

91% win-rate macro bettor

A highly proven macro trader with a 91% win rate and $1.9M profit is building a cross-market Fed thesis by buying Yes at 42¢ in this no-cuts market.

  • This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $1.9M lifetime across 820 bets
  • They have traded 161 markets across 124 events, which points to a repeatable cross-market edge rather than a one-off bet
  • Bought Yes at 42¢ while the market has been moving up, suggesting they see no Fed cuts in 2026 as underpriced

$1,039 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

3-wallet macro cluster

Three wallets aligned on No in a major macro market, including two with strong early win rates, and their buying helped push No from roughly 60¢ to 67¢.

  • Three wallets lined up on No for $8.5k total, a coordinated directional bet in a big Fed market
  • Two of the wallets win 75% and 79% of resolved bets, giving the cluster some track-record support
  • The best entry was around 60¢ on No, and the market has already moved up to 67¢ after the buys

$8,451 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $379,930
  2. 0xaf45...ec7d Yes, $140,032 (75% win rate)
  3. 0x9d84...1344 Yes, $70,811 (38% win rate)
  4. 0xdd9c...31a0 Yes, $60,422
  5. 0x269c...9017 No, $60,000 (86% win rate)
  6. 0x7cde...b97d No, $52,835 (95% win rate)
  7. 0xe033...40a5 Yes, $45,310
  8. 0x9e7e...3e1d Yes, $40,000
  9. 0xa46c...8f85 Yes, $34,736
  10. 0x7b02...4991 Yes, $23,216 (52% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

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Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

262d$10,520 tracked3 signalsBusinessFed RatesJerome PowellEconomic PolicyFedEconomyFinance
Yes
41¢
No
59¢

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Price History — “No
70¢
63¢
55¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

1d ago

$1,030 on Yes at 40¢

40¢41¢1¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

2d ago

$1,039 on Yes at 42¢

42¢41¢1¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

4d ago

$8,451 on No at 60¢

60¢59¢1¢

Related Theses