Part of: Claude Mythos released by…?

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,935.

Categories: anthropic, Tech, AI, Claude

Notable Trades

14-wallet funded cluster

High composite alert from a 14-wallet funded cluster buying Yes near expiry amid a 42.7x volume spike, despite the market already pricing Yes at 94%.

  • This bettor is part of a 14-wallet funded cluster, a strong signal of coordinated conviction.
  • Market volume spiked 42.7x ahead of resolution, with Yes already moving from their 90¢ entry to 94¢.
  • The wallet is profitable overall, up about $875K lifetime across $66M traded.

$4,314 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%

86% winner buying NO

Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved win rate and strong edge bought $1.5k of No on the Claude Mythos release market.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades, going 38-for-44 so far.
  • Their past bets averaged 50¢ entry odds, meaning they have beaten the market by a wide margin.
  • They put $1.5k on No at 41¢, implying they see the release-by-deadline odds as overstated.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable new AI-release bettor

A 12-day-old wallet with early profits and repeated large flagged bets is buying Yes on a thin AI-release market while also positioning across related markets.

  • This 12-day-old bettor is already up $6.2K on $28K invested, with 6 flagged positions so far.
  • They are spreading a $12K thesis across 3 related markets, suggesting a focused view on this event.
  • The market is thin, and this $1.1K Yes buy is meaningful versus $3.4K liquidity.

$1,121 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 58247836, $29,143 (72% win rate)
  2. 0x8dd2...6ba2 Outcome 58247836, $20,423
  3. 0xf84f...5c5c Outcome 58247836, $15,025
  4. 0x3579...14fc Outcome 58247836, $10,000
  5. 0x4c61...db4b Outcome 58247836, $8,486 (69% win rate)
  6. 0x1627...c8ec Outcome 58247836, $5,808
  7. 0x2224...23e1 Outcome 58247836, $5,291 (92% win rate)
  8. 0x6dce...4490 Outcome 58247836, $5,246 (20% win rate)
  9. 0xd9c1...5447 Outcome 58247836, $5,164
  10. 0x1682...26ca Outcome 58247836, $5,000 (68% win rate)

Related Theses

Anthropic tops three trillion

Covers 4 related markets

OpenAI hits $800B, not $1.5T

Covers 4 related markets

Starmer exits by May 2026

Covers 3 related markets

Mythos releases by June 9

Covers 3 related markets

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

ResolvedClaude Mythos released by…?$6,935 tracked3 signalsanthropicTechAIClaude

A data leak on March 26, 2026, exposed Anthropic's unreleased "Claude Mythos" model, described as their most capable yet with significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, which the company has confirmed is now in early access testing. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases "Claude Mythos" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify towards this market’s resolution. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Notable Trades

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

22d ago

$4,314 on Yes at 90¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

22d ago

$1,500 on No at 41¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

22d ago

$1,121 on Yes at 51¢

Related Theses