Claude Mythos released by…?
23 signals across 5 markets · $70,190 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds on whether Anthropic releases a Claude Mythos model by June 30, 2026. Traders are pricing the likelihood of a launch after reports of a leaked, early-access Anthropic model with major gains in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity.
Markets (5)
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?11 signals · $39,049 tracked
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?6 signals · $18,669 tracked
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?3 signals · $6,935 tracked
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?1 signal · $2,991 tracked
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?2 signals · $2,547 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 14-wallet funded cluster
High composite alert from a 14-wallet funded cluster buying Yes near expiry amid a 42.7x volume spike, despite the market already pricing Yes at 94%.
$4,314Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 11.1 - Sharp serial event trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $5,000 of Yes on a plausible information-edge AI release market.
$5,000Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 8.0 - Profitable new AI-release bettor
A 12-day-old wallet with early profits and repeated large flagged bets is buying Yes on a thin AI-release market while also positioning across related markets.
$1,121Wallet win rate: 84%Score: 7.5 - Profitable serial event trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and $62k lifetime profit is buying Yes on an Anthropic release market.
$1,001Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 7.0 - New wallet flips to NO
A 12-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits has flipped from a big Yes position into No after the market's sharp Yes rally.
$2,343Wallet win rate: 84%Score: 5.5 - New wallet AI conviction
A very new wallet has already made multiple large bets and just bought Yes at 27¢ in a moderately thin AI event market, suggesting fresh conviction worth monitoring despite no proven track record yet.
$1,387Score: 5.5 - 96% win-rate serial bettor
A highly proven serial cross-market bettor with a 96% resolved win rate bought No on a relatively quiet AI-release market.
$2,704Wallet win rate: 96%Score: 5.0 - Proven serial event trader
Surface: a proven serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a plausible AI release market.
$1,370Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $139K lifetime P&L is buying No on the Claude Mythos release market as part of a broader event position.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet with a long serial cross-market pattern is adding Yes exposure across related Claude Mythos markets.
$2,891Wallet win rate: 59%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbf9332…2fd7$23,000 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 60% wins
- 0xb10047…6461$14,983 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 59% wins
- 0x8c57f6…f939$6,001 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 70% wins
- 0x81aaa4…c075$5,166 · 1 market · 1 alert · 93% wins
- 0x8a4c78…532b$4,314 · 1 market · 1 alert · 52% wins
- 0x757828…6426$3,464 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 84% wins
- 0xc6dd72…4b9f$2,991 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0xa52b78…9480$2,704 · 1 market · 1 alert · 96% wins
- 0xb961f4…4e41$1,500 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
- 0x3f73b7…acef$1,387 · 1 market · 1 alert
FAQs
What are the odds Claude Mythos is released by June 30, 2026?
The live Polymarket price for this event reflects the market-implied probability that Anthropic releases a Claude Mythos model by the deadline. Check the event page for the latest odds, price movement, and trading activity.
What is the Claude Mythos Polymarket market about?
This market asks whether Anthropic will release a model called Claude Mythos by June 30, 2026. It is tied to reporting that Mythos exists in early access testing after a data leak described it as a major capability jump.
Is smart money betting on Claude Mythos being released?
PolySpotter currently tracks $1,387 in smart-money activity across this event, with one recent signal flagged as new wallet AI conviction. That suggests at least one tracked wallet has taken a notable position in the market.
When does the Claude Mythos release market resolve?
The market is centered on whether Claude Mythos is released by June 30, 2026, and resolves according to Polymarket’s official rules and evidence criteria. Always review the market’s resolution details before trading.