Part of: Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $31,798.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Proven sharp scaling into No

A highly profitable bettor with 266 resolved trades and a 20-point edge is adding to an existing No position in a long-dated diplomatic market.

  • This bettor wins 80% of 266 resolved trades, outperforming their average odds by 20 percentage points and earning $100,389.
  • They added $1,305 to No at 87¢ after already investing $2,118, signaling increased conviction that no agreement will be announced.
  • The wallet has traded across 28 events and 33 markets, making this more than an isolated position.

$1,305 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven bettor scaling into Yes

A proven 81% win-rate trader is adding to an existing Yes position in a market that has risen 35% over the past week.

  • This bettor has won 81% of 53 resolved trades and is up $83,205 overall.
  • They are adding to an existing Yes position at 51¢ after the market gained 35% this week.
  • The wallet has traded across 29 events, suggesting broad experience rather than a one-off wager.

$1,450 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Three-wallet No accumulation

Three wallets concentrated nearly all recent market volume into No at 74¢, creating a strong coordinated-flow and volume-spike signal despite limited track-record support.

  • Three wallets bought $23,852 of No at 74¢, nearly matching the market’s entire $24,052 in 24-hour volume.
  • The trades produced a 1,058x historical volume spike in a relatively thin $27,472-liquidity market.
  • One participant has an 80% win rate across 10 resolved bets, though the other two wallets have weaker or negative records.

$5,150 on No

Serial sharp scaling into No

A highly experienced bettor with a 79% win rate and substantial proven edge is adding to a No position at 60¢.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 1,190 resolved trades and earned $534,341 in lifetime profit.
  • The wallet has a documented 21-point edge over its average implied odds across 936 markets.
  • It is buying No at 60¢ after previously holding and closing a No position, signaling renewed conviction.

$4,639 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Serial sharp scaling into No

A highly experienced bettor with a 79% win rate and substantial proven edge is adding to a No position at 60¢.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 1,190 resolved trades and earned $534,341 in lifetime profit.
  • The wallet has a documented 21-point edge over its average implied odds across 936 markets.
  • It is buying No at 60¢ after previously holding and closing a No position, signaling renewed conviction.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Serial sharp scaling into No

A highly experienced bettor with a 79% win rate and substantial proven edge is adding to a No position at 60¢.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 1,190 resolved trades and earned $534,341 in lifetime profit.
  • The wallet has a documented 21-point edge over its average implied odds across 936 markets.
  • It is buying No at 60¢ after previously holding and closing a No position, signaling renewed conviction.

$1,264 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable serial trader buys No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is buying No, aligned with the market's sharp recent decline.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 74 resolved trades and earned nearly $100,000 in profit.
  • The $2,038 No position follows a broad trading history spanning 28 events and 40 markets.
  • No has fallen 18 percentage points over the past day, supporting the trader's direction, though the market remains years from resolution.

$2,038 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

92% winner adds to No position

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding $3,500 to an existing No position across a four-market event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 91 resolved trades and earned about $71,000.
  • They are adding $3,500 to an existing No position while also positioning across four markets in this event.
  • The No entry is 43¢, implying the trader sees roughly a 57% chance the agreement does not happen by September 30.

$5,422 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

92% winner adds to No position

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding $3,500 to an existing No position across a four-market event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 91 resolved trades and earned about $71,000.
  • They are adding $3,500 to an existing No position while also positioning across four markets in this event.
  • The No entry is 43¢, implying the trader sees roughly a 57% chance the agreement does not happen by September 30.

$4,030 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

92% winner adds to No position

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding $3,500 to an existing No position across a four-market event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 91 resolved trades and earned about $71,000.
  • They are adding $3,500 to an existing No position while also positioning across four markets in this event.
  • The No entry is 43¢, implying the trader sees roughly a 57% chance the agreement does not happen by September 30.

$3,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Top Holders

  1. 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $8,818
  2. 0x97ea...3363 — Yes, $3,114 (71% win rate)
  3. 0xe234...304a — Yes, $3,078 (67% win rate)
  4. 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $3,000 (76% win rate)
  5. 0x4b28...15df — Yes, $1,620
  6. 0xefce...4e4a — No, $1,600 (51% win rate)
  7. 0xf670...3cb8 — Yes, $1,523
  8. 0x215a...254c — Yes, $1,411
  9. 0x7bf6...5219 — Yes, $1,096
  10. 0xb51b...b4d9 — Yes, $1,037 (60% win rate)

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?$31,798 tracked10 signalsIranTrumpPeace DealGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

2026-09-17 10:03 UTC

$1,305 on No at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

2026-09-13 17:50 UTC

$1,450 on Yes at 51¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

2026-09-13 19:23 UTC

$5,150 on No at 74¢

74¢→100¢↑26¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

2026-08-31 00:23 UTC

$4,639 on No at 60¢

60¢→100¢↑40¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

2026-08-28 16:44 UTC

$3,000 on No at 60¢

60¢→100¢↑40¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

2026-08-28 05:13 UTC

$1,264 on No at 60¢

60¢→100¢↑40¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

2026-08-20 13:47 UTC

$2,038 on No at 55¢

55¢→100¢↑45¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

2026-08-20 05:21 UTC

$5,422 on No at 43¢

43¢→100¢↑57¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

2026-08-19 23:01 UTC

$4,030 on No at 43¢

43¢→100¢↑57¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

2026-08-18 19:34 UTC

$3,500 on No at 43¢

43¢→100¢↑57¢

Related Theses