Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?
This Polymarket asks whether Donald Trump will grant Martin Shkreli a pardon, commutation, or reprieve during 2026, with the market resolving based on official government information or credible reporting. The current market odds strongly favor Yes, and recent smart money activity includes a high-confidence buy on that outcome. Resolution is scheduled for December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,035.
Notable Trades
96% winner buys Yes
A very high-win-rate wallet sold No on a relatively quiet political market, effectively buying Yes around 19¢ despite only a weak market-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades across 294 markets.
- They effectively bought Yes at 19¢ by selling No at 81¢.
- The market is fairly quiet, so a $1.0k trade stands out more than it would in a deeper market.
$1,035 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%
Top Holders
- 0x9b6f...0e5f — Yes, $1,898 (50% win rate)
- 0x73d2...f9b7 — No, $824 (76% win rate)
- 0x5eec...f4e2 — No, $800 (96% win rate)
- 0x342a...9395 — No, $549
- 0x976e...ecf3 — No, $460
- 0x21a1...2f95 — Yes, $459
- 0x2784...783b — Yes, $427
- 0x5446...18f6 — No, $332
- 0xcc79...1c2a — No, $300
- 0xa58d...b9b8 — Yes, $289 (39% win rate)
