Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
5 signals across 2 markets · $14,029 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks the Polymarket prediction market on whether Donald Trump will pardon, commute, or reprieve Martin Shkreli before 2027. PolySpotter monitors the odds and smart money activity, including recent signals from both a 83% win-rate NO buyer and a 96% winner buying YES.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Million-dollar sharp buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor put $5.8k on No in a quiet pardon market, dwarfing recent volume.
$5,780Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 5.4 - 83% win-rate NO buyer
A proven 83% win-rate trader made a nearly $5k buy that was almost the entire day's volume in a thin pardon market, and the price moved strongly in their favor afterward.
$4,919Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial bettor
Highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $3.18M lifetime profit bought No despite limited recent market activity.
$1,230Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0 - 96% winner buys Yes
A very high-win-rate wallet sold No on a relatively quiet political market, effectively buying Yes around 19¢ despite only a weak market-activity signal.
$1,035Wallet win rate: 96%Score: 1.0 - Profitable 77% winner buying NO
Surfaced because a highly experienced profitable wallet with a 77% historical win rate is buying No despite only a weak low-activity signal.
$1,065Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 1.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x433723…8882$7,010 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 74% wins
- 0x4133f8…ea5d$4,919 · 1 market · 1 alert · 78% wins
- 0xcaab19…24dd$1,065 · 1 market · 1 alert · 78% wins
- 0x5eec1b…f4e2$1,035 · 1 market · 1 alert · 96% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Trump pardons Martin Shkreli before 2027?
The live Polymarket price reflects the market-implied odds that Trump pardons, commutes, or reprieves Martin Shkreli by the end of 2026. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart money flows so you can see how informed traders are positioning.
What is the smart money doing on this Trump pardon market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show mixed high-signal activity: an 83% win-rate trader bought NO, while a 96% winner bought YES. That makes this a market worth watching for changes in conviction and follow-on trades.
When does this Trump pardon market resolve?
The market resolves based on whether Martin Shkreli receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
What sources determine whether the market resolves Yes?
The primary resolution source is official information from the U.S. government. If needed, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine whether a qualifying pardon, commutation, or reprieve occurred.
Is this a Polymarket market about all Trump pardons?
This event hub focuses on the listed pardon outcome currently trading: whether Trump will pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027. If related pardon markets are added, the hub can track those outcomes as part of the broader event.