Part of: Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?
This prediction market asks whether SpaceX's private market valuation will reach or exceed $1.5 trillion by June 30, 2026, using the Nasdaq Private Market NPM Price as the resolution source. The market is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2026, after relevant NPM data is available. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,790 in smart money activity, including a recent signal showing a 92% winner buying NO.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,790.
Categories: Finance, Privates, Elon Musk, Tech, Big Tech, aerospace, AI, SpaxeX, SpaceX
Notable Trades
92% winner buying NO
Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the wallet has a strong 92% resolved-bet record and positive lifetime P&L while buying No at 89¢.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $2.8K lifetime.
- They bought $1.8K of No at 89¢, adding conviction against a $1.5T SpaceX valuation by June 2026.
- The trade was large versus recent quiet-market volume at the time of detection.
$1,790 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0x0681...f713 — Yes, $82,454 (80% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $40,790 (47% win rate)
- 0x5011...220e — No, $13,712 (57% win rate)
- 0x0b34...f5a6 — No, $10,555 (69% win rate)
- 0x7789...a280 — No, $6,096 (90% win rate)
- 0xebab...cff5 — No, $4,950 (92% win rate)
- 0xc002...6f57 — No, $4,643 (42% win rate)
- 0xd8d5...8935 — No, $3,474 (73% win rate)
- 0x30c5...fb44 — No, $2,800
- 0x832b...5c91 — No, $2,539
