What is this Claude Opus prediction market about?

The market predicts whether the next Claude model labeled “Opus” and added to the Arena.AI leaderboard will reach a score of at least 1480.

When does the Claude Opus 1480 market resolve?

The market has a resolution date of December 31, 2026. Its result is determined using the model’s Arena.AI leaderboard score at 12:00 PM ET on the day after it first appears.

What makes this market resolve to Yes?

It resolves to Yes if the next qualifying Claude Opus model has an Arena.AI leaderboard score of 1480 or higher at the specified measurement time.

What happens if the next Claude Opus scores below 1480?

If the qualifying model’s score is below 1480 at the measurement time, the market resolves to No.

Which Claude models can qualify for this market?

Any newly added Claude model labeled “Opus” may qualify, including future Opus releases or previews listed on the Arena.AI text leaderboard.

Part of: Next Claude Opus: Text Arena Debut?

Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI text leaderboard will score at least 1480. It resolves by December 31, 2026, based on the model’s score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after its first leaderboard appearance; current Yes/No odds were not included in the supplied metadata.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,327.

Categories: AI, Claude Opus, Tech, Claude, Anthropic, AI Releases

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market trader adds to Yes

A serial cross-market trader with 56 events made a substantial add-on bet that represented 59% of 24-hour volume, and the market subsequently rose from 71% to 80%, though the wallet lacks a clear odds-adjusted edge.

This wallet has traded 56 events and 79 markets, with $201,298 in total activity.
The $1,327 purchase represented 59% of the market’s 24-hour volume in a thin order book.
The trader added to an existing Yes position at 71%, followed by a rise to roughly 80%.

$1,327 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%