Part of: Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Iran will officially announce and begin collecting mandatory fees, tolls, tariffs, or similar charges from commercial vessels passing through or accessing the Strait of Hormuz. It resolves on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET; PolySpotter currently tracks one smart money signal, with recent activity scaling into No.

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,034.

Categories: toll, Iran, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Oil

Notable Trades

Serial trader scales into No

A serial cross-market trader with 207 resolved bets added a sizable No position in a thin market, worth monitoring despite only modest historical edge.

  • This wallet has traded 76 markets across 47 events, with 207 resolved bets and a 73% win rate.
  • The $3,622 addition was over three times the market’s entire 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a quiet market.
  • The trader already held $6,714 of No shares and is increasing that position while No is priced near 54¢.

$3,364 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Serial trader scales into No

A serial cross-market trader with 207 resolved bets added a sizable No position in a thin market, worth monitoring despite only modest historical edge.

  • This wallet has traded 76 markets across 47 events, with 207 resolved bets and a 73% win rate.
  • The $3,622 addition was over three times the market’s entire 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a quiet market.
  • The trader already held $6,714 of No shares and is increasing that position while No is priced near 54¢.

$1,048 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Serial trader scales into No

A serial cross-market trader with 207 resolved bets added a sizable No position in a thin market, worth monitoring despite only modest historical edge.

  • This wallet has traded 76 markets across 47 events, with 207 resolved bets and a 73% win rate.
  • The $3,622 addition was over three times the market’s entire 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a quiet market.
  • The trader already held $6,714 of No shares and is increasing that position while No is priced near 54¢.

$3,622 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6bab...0fe5 No, $21,665 (75% win rate)
  2. 0x8792...4174 No, $16,123 (84% win rate)
  3. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $15,521 (64% win rate)
  4. 0x246b...1196 Yes, $12,814 (79% win rate)
  5. 0xcca9...4c9f Yes, $12,491 (67% win rate)
  6. 0xdf17...97d1 Yes, $12,204 (57% win rate)
  7. 0x066a...550d No, $10,186 (61% win rate)
  8. 0xbd04...fbb0 No, $8,061 (73% win rate)
  9. 0xa8da...f944 Yes, $7,339
  10. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $4,576

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Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

111dIran charges Hormuz fees by...?$8,034 tracked3 signalstollIranGeopoliticsStrait of HormuzOil
Yes
28¢
No
73¢

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
75¢
70¢
66¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

20d ago

$3,364 on No at 54¢

54¢73¢19¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

21d ago

$1,048 on No at 54¢

54¢73¢19¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

25d ago

$3,622 on No at 54¢

54¢73¢19¢

Related Theses