Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
15 signals across 4 markets · $37,241 tracked · resolves Aug 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether Iran will officially announce and begin collecting mandatory fees, tolls, tariffs, or similar charges from commercial vessels using the Strait of Hormuz. PolySpotter is monitoring the market for shifts in pricing and smart money activity, including a recent signal from a profitable serial macro bettor.
Markets (4)
Top trades across all markets
- Serial cross-market winner
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.
$2,256Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 6.0 - Serial cross-market winner
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.
$1,317Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 6.0 - Serial cross-market winner
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.
$1,500Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 6.0 - Serial cross-market winner
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.
$2,200Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 6.0 - Serial cross-market winner
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.
$1,686Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 6.0 - Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet with a 70% record and serial cross-market activity made a large No bet that dominated this thin market and has already moved from 87¢ to 94¢.
$1,091Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 5.0 - Proven cross-market winner
Proven profitable wallet with broad cross-market experience is buying No on a geopolitically plausible market, though the bet size is modest relative to liquidity.
$2,022Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 4.9 - Proven cross-market winner
Proven profitable wallet with broad cross-market experience is buying No on a geopolitically plausible market, though the bet size is modest relative to liquidity.
$3,173Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 4.7 - Profitable serial event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% historical win rate is buying Yes on a plausible geopolitical market, though the current stake is modest.
$1,935Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 4.7 - Proven cross-market winner
Proven profitable wallet with broad cross-market experience is buying No on a geopolitically plausible market, though the bet size is modest relative to liquidity.
$2,025Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 4.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0x1ee9a5…197f$11,444 · 2 markets · 7 alerts · 66% wins
- 0xcd71fd…d127$11,387 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 80% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$9,156 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 79% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$4,066 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
- 0xbf961d…9942$1,188 · 1 market · 1 alert · 77% wins
FAQs
What is the Iran Hormuz fees prediction market about?
The market asks whether Iran will officially announce and start collecting mandatory passage-related fees from commercial vessels traveling through or accessing the Strait of Hormuz by the market deadline.
What are the current odds that Iran charges Hormuz fees?
The live Polymarket price reflects the market-implied odds. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart money signals so you can see whether informed traders are leaning Yes or No.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,091 in smart money activity across this event, including one recent signal tied to a profitable serial macro bettor.
When does the Iran Hormuz fees market resolve?
The child market focuses on whether qualifying fees are in place by July 15. Final resolution is handled under Polymarket’s rules and may be finalized by the listed resolution date of August 31, 2026.
What would count as a Yes outcome?
A Yes requires an official Iranian government policy that both announces and begins collecting mandatory fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz.