Part of: Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $22,538.
Categories: Tech, Big Tech, AI, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100, Claude
Notable Trades
Repeat new-wallet whale
A 2-day-old wallet has already fired 12 large-bet alerts and is again buying OpenAI YES into strong momentum, suggesting a repeat high-conviction new entrant worth watching.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already made 12 large bets totaling over $20k, which is unusual for a brand-new account.
- They bought OpenAI YES at 28¢ while the market has jumped 8.4 points in a day and 22.8 points in a week.
- The trade is modest versus market liquidity, but repeated sizing from a fresh wallet suggests growing conviction on the same kind of thesis.
$1,608 on Yes
Repeat new-wallet AI bettor
A 2-day-old wallet has repeatedly deployed meaningful size into markets, and this latest $1.9k buy adds to an aggressive early pattern in a fast-moving AI market.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already triggered 11 large-bet alerts with $18.7k flagged total
- The bettor just bought OpenAI Yes at 27¢ while this market is up 22.8 points over the past week
- This is a fresh position in a liquid AI market, suggesting real conviction rather than routine profit-taking
$1,932 on Yes
New whale buying OpenAI
A 2-day-old wallet has already made repeated large bets totaling over $16.8k and just bought OpenAI Yes at 28¢ into a market that has been moving up sharply, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already triggered 10 large-bet alerts with $16.8k in flagged volume
- They just bought OpenAI Yes at 28¢, pricing it like a roughly 1-in-4 shot
- The market is already gaining momentum, up 24.2% this week on $189k of 24h volume
$2,004 on Yes
Repeat new-wallet buyer
A 1-day-old wallet has repeatedly made sizable bets across the platform and just bought OpenAI Yes at 20¢, suggesting a new high-conviction trader worth monitoring despite no resolved track record yet.
- This 1-day-old wallet has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts totaling about $14.8k
- They just bought OpenAI Yes at 20¢, a price that implies a roughly 5x payout if right
- This is fresh conviction from a brand-new wallet, not routine position management
$1,017 on Yes
93% win-rate AI bettor
A highly proven bettor with a 93% win rate is taking a sizable position on a liquid AI market, making this a credible thesis bet worth tracking despite only one signal firing.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $107k across 853 settled bets.
- They have traded 332 markets across 216 events, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 82¢ on a major AI market, signaling conviction even after the price moved up over the past week.
$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% winner flips to Yes
A 93% win-rate wallet from a 10-wallet linked cluster flipped into a fresh Yes position at 23¢ on a fast-rising AI market, making this a notable thesis trade despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades across 61 markets and belongs to a 10-wallet linked cluster.
- They opened a fresh Yes position at 23¢ after previously closing a No bet, showing a real thesis change rather than routine profit-taking.
- The market is already up 18% in a day, so this buy lines up with strong momentum on a major AI question.
$1,793 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Fresh wallet keeps firing
A brand-new wallet has repeatedly deployed meaningful size into Polymarket and is now buying OpenAI Yes after an 11-point weekly move, suggesting fresh conviction worth monitoring despite no proven track record yet.
- This wallet is only 11 hours old and has already triggered 8 large-bet alerts totaling $13.8k
- They bought OpenAI Yes at 19¢, a low price that implies they see the market as materially underrating OpenAI
- The market is active and moving higher, with OpenAI up about 11 points over the past week
$2,839 on Yes
Fresh wallet repeating big bets
A 4-hour-old wallet has repeatedly made sizable bets totaling $9.6k and just bought OpenAI Yes at 18¢ into a rising market, which is notable despite lacking a proven track record.
- A 4-hour-old wallet has already triggered 6 large-bet alerts totaling $9.6k
- This trade bought OpenAI Yes at 18¢, a low price that implies a high-upside view
- The market is moving higher fast, up 10.7 points in 1 day and 12.4 points in 1 week
$1,090 on Yes
New whale buying OpenAI
A brand-new wallet is repeatedly buying OpenAI Yes in size, with nearly $10k flagged across six alerts, showing concentrated early conviction in a liquid narrative market.
- This wallet is less than 4 hours old and has already triggered 6 large-bet alerts with about $9.6k in flagged buying
- All 3 trades here were fresh buys on OpenAI Yes at 18¢, showing clear conviction rather than profit-taking
- The market has been moving up fast, with OpenAI Yes up about 10 points in 1 day, so this bettor is leaning into strong momentum
$3,673 on Yes
New whale buying Yes
A brand-new wallet placed two sizable buys totaling $2.6k on a liquid AI market after already being flagged repeatedly for $7.2k of similar activity, suggesting fresh conviction worth monitoring.
- This wallet is less than 4 hours old and has already been flagged 4 times for about $7.2k of betting
- It just bought $2.6k of Yes at 18¢, a concentrated bet that OpenAI is undervalued at current 16-17¢ odds
- The market is active and moving higher, up about 10% in a day, so this bettor is adding into real momentum
$2,583 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $650,371
- 0x768c...49c3 — Yes, $152,197
- 0x844e...4f41 — Yes, $36,531 (48% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — Yes, $32,642 (52% win rate)
- 0xc5f5...e459 — Yes, $29,412 (0% win rate)
- 0x89b7...c6c9 — Yes, $21,285
- 0xa445...0286 — Yes, $20,198
- 0x76f0...09fe — Yes, $18,978
- 0xdd5f...3049 — Yes, $15,980
- 0xc297...72a1 — Yes, $12,313
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