Which company has the best AI model end of April?
13 signals across 2 markets · $26,705 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 93% winner in funded cluster
A 93% win-rate wallet from a 10-wallet funded cluster is buying Anthropic Yes, making this a strong follow signal despite the modest ticket size.
$1,171Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 15.0 - 93% winner flips to Yes
A 93% win-rate wallet from a 10-wallet linked cluster flipped into a fresh Yes position at 23¢ on a fast-rising AI market, making this a notable thesis trade despite the modest size.
$1,793Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 12.0 - 93% win-rate AI bettor
A highly proven 93% win-rate wallet with activity across 217 events bought Anthropic Yes after a sharp weekly price drop, making this a credible follow from a consistently successful trader.
$1,900Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 7.0 - New whale buying OpenAI
A 2-day-old wallet has already made repeated large bets totaling over $16.8k and just bought OpenAI Yes at 28¢ into a market that has been moving up sharply, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching.
$2,004Score: 5.5 - New whale buying Yes
A brand-new wallet placed two sizable buys totaling $2.6k on a liquid AI market after already being flagged repeatedly for $7.2k of similar activity, suggesting fresh conviction worth monitoring.
$2,583Score: 5.5 - New whale buying OpenAI
A brand-new wallet is repeatedly buying OpenAI Yes in size, with nearly $10k flagged across six alerts, showing concentrated early conviction in a liquid narrative market.
$3,673Score: 5.5 - Repeat new-wallet whale
A 2-day-old wallet has already fired 12 large-bet alerts and is again buying OpenAI YES into strong momentum, suggesting a repeat high-conviction new entrant worth watching.
$1,608Score: 5.5 - Fresh wallet keeps firing
A brand-new wallet has repeatedly deployed meaningful size into Polymarket and is now buying OpenAI Yes after an 11-point weekly move, suggesting fresh conviction worth monitoring despite no proven track record yet.
$2,839Score: 5.5 - Fresh wallet repeating big bets
A 4-hour-old wallet has repeatedly made sizable bets totaling $9.6k and just bought OpenAI Yes at 18¢ into a rising market, which is notable despite lacking a proven track record.
$1,090Score: 5.5 - Repeat new-wallet AI bettor
A 2-day-old wallet has repeatedly deployed meaningful size into markets, and this latest $1.9k buy adds to an aggressive early pattern in a fast-moving AI market.
$1,932Score: 5.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0x768cec…49c3$16,745 · 1 market · 8 alerts
- 0x3c5b20…0584$5,900 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 93% wins
- 0xb6c83e…b9e6$2,964 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 93% wins
- 0x7cde9c…b97d$1,096 · 1 market · 1 alert · 95% wins