Part of: How high will inflation get in 2026?
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
This prediction market asks whether U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will rise above 4.5% year over year in any month of 2026. It resolves using monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI reports; the provided metadata does not include current market odds. The market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026, after the relevant data is released.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $22,492.
Categories: Inflation, Macro Indicators, Economy, Politics
Notable Trades
Serial cross-market trader, 427 resolved bets
A repeat cross-market trader with a large resolved history is positioning for Yes, though its 76% win rate is not clearly above its average winning price and the bet is a modest signal.
- This wallet has traded across 33 events and is up $18,407 across 427 resolved bets.
- The $1,275 sale of No is equivalent to buying Yes at 15¢; the wallet also has activity in another market from this event.
- The 76% win rate is close to the wallet’s 77¢ average winning price, so its track record is profitable but not strong proof of an edge.
$1,275 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable bettor scaling into No
A profitable, experienced wallet added $6,296 to an existing No position and has placed $26,036 across five related markets, though the alert lacks a strong standalone edge signal.
- A wallet up $160,311 over 883 resolved bets added another $6,296 to its existing No position.
- The bettor has placed $26,036 across five related markets, signaling a broader view on the event.
- The trade was made at 86¢, close to the current 87¢ No price, so there is limited visible entry-price advantage.
$6,296 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%
Cross-market inflation bear
A 69% historical winner is extending a broader $24k cross-market inflation thesis, buying No after strong recent movement in that direction.
- This bettor has positioned across 4 related inflation markets with about $24k total exposure.
- They bought No at 70¢, and the market has already moved to 74¢ in the same direction.
- The market has been shifting sharply toward No, with Yes down 32.5% over the past week.
$4,529 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%
Cross-market inflation bear
A 69% historical winner is extending a broader $24k cross-market inflation thesis, buying No after strong recent movement in that direction.
- This bettor has positioned across 4 related inflation markets with about $24k total exposure.
- They bought No at 70¢, and the market has already moved to 74¢ in the same direction.
- The market has been shifting sharply toward No, with Yes down 32.5% over the past week.
$2,215 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%
Cross-market inflation bear
A 69% historical winner is extending a broader $24k cross-market inflation thesis, buying No after strong recent movement in that direction.
- This bettor has positioned across 4 related inflation markets with about $24k total exposure.
- They bought No at 70¢, and the market has already moved to 74¢ in the same direction.
- The market has been shifting sharply toward No, with Yes down 32.5% over the past week.
$1,053 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%
Cross-market inflation bear
A 69% historical winner is extending a broader $24k cross-market inflation thesis, buying No after strong recent movement in that direction.
- This bettor has positioned across 4 related inflation markets with about $24k total exposure.
- They bought No at 70¢, and the market has already moved to 74¢ in the same direction.
- The market has been shifting sharply toward No, with Yes down 32.5% over the past week.
$2,142 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%
Cross-market inflation bear
A single wallet is building a broader anti-inflation thesis across four related markets, moving a thin order book despite a mixed overall track record.
- This wallet has put $23K across 4 related inflation markets, all pointing to lower 2026 inflation odds.
- This buy was large for the market, equal to about 57% of recent 24h volume.
- The trade pushed No above its prior range, with entry at 63¢ implying a lower-risk but still directional view.
$1,097 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%
Profitable macro cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a broader inflation thesis across five related markets, with this No bet large relative to recent market activity.
- This bettor is up $125k lifetime across 753 resolved trades.
- They have $22.5k spread across 5 related inflation markets, suggesting a broader macro thesis.
- This $2.8k No buy was larger than the market’s entire 24h volume.
$2,801 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%
4-market inflation thesis
Wallet is building a sustained cross-market thesis against >4.5% inflation in 2026, with $21k across four related markets and recent price momentum supporting the direction.
- This wallet has placed $21k across 4 related inflation markets, pointing to a broader macro thesis.
- The latest trade bought No at 36¢ in a quiet market with only $4.6k traded in 24 hours.
- Market momentum supports the move: Yes odds are down 17.5 points over the past week.
$1,084 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%
Related Theses
Inflation exceeds 4.5%, stays below 5%
Covers 2 related markets
Bank of Israel holds rates steady
Covers 1 related market
Fed holds rates steady
Covers 2 related markets
Fed holds rates steady after October 2026 meeting
Covers 1 related market
UK will have two PMs
Covers 1 related market
BOJ will either hike or hold
Covers 2 related markets
ECB will hike 25 bps in December 2026
Covers 1 related market
Bank of England holds rates
Covers 2 related markets
Bank of Canada holds rates steady
Covers 2 related markets
Inflation tops 3.5%, stays below 4%
Covers 5 related markets
