What does the 2026 inflation prediction market measure?

It measures whether CPI inflation exceeds 4.5% year over year during at least one month in 2026.

What data determines the market outcome?

The outcome is determined by monthly Consumer Price Index reports published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

When does this inflation market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026, with resolution based on the applicable BLS CPI reports released during 2026.

What happens if inflation never rises above 4.5%?

The market resolves to No if no monthly BLS CPI report shows a year-over-year increase greater than 4.5% during 2026.

Where can I check the latest Polymarket inflation odds?

Check the live market page for the current Yes and No prices, trading activity, and smart money signals.

Part of: How high will inflation get in 2026?

Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

This prediction market asks whether U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will rise above 4.5% year over year in any month of 2026. It resolves using monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI reports; the provided metadata does not include current market odds. The market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026, after the relevant data is released.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,921.

Categories: Inflation, Macro Indicators, Economy, Politics

Notable Trades

Cross-market inflation bear

A 69% historical winner is extending a broader $24k cross-market inflation thesis, buying No after strong recent movement in that direction.

This bettor has positioned across 4 related inflation markets with about $24k total exposure.
They bought No at 70¢, and the market has already moved to 74¢ in the same direction.
The market has been shifting sharply toward No, with Yes down 32.5% over the past week.

$4,529 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%

Cross-market inflation bear

A 69% historical winner is extending a broader $24k cross-market inflation thesis, buying No after strong recent movement in that direction.

This bettor has positioned across 4 related inflation markets with about $24k total exposure.
They bought No at 70¢, and the market has already moved to 74¢ in the same direction.
The market has been shifting sharply toward No, with Yes down 32.5% over the past week.

$2,215 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%

Cross-market inflation bear

A 69% historical winner is extending a broader $24k cross-market inflation thesis, buying No after strong recent movement in that direction.

This bettor has positioned across 4 related inflation markets with about $24k total exposure.
They bought No at 70¢, and the market has already moved to 74¢ in the same direction.
The market has been shifting sharply toward No, with Yes down 32.5% over the past week.

$1,053 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%

Cross-market inflation bear

A 69% historical winner is extending a broader $24k cross-market inflation thesis, buying No after strong recent movement in that direction.

This bettor has positioned across 4 related inflation markets with about $24k total exposure.
They bought No at 70¢, and the market has already moved to 74¢ in the same direction.
The market has been shifting sharply toward No, with Yes down 32.5% over the past week.

$2,142 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%

Cross-market inflation bear

A single wallet is building a broader anti-inflation thesis across four related markets, moving a thin order book despite a mixed overall track record.

This wallet has put $23K across 4 related inflation markets, all pointing to lower 2026 inflation odds.
This buy was large for the market, equal to about 57% of recent 24h volume.
The trade pushed No above its prior range, with entry at 63¢ implying a lower-risk but still directional view.

$1,097 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%

Profitable macro cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet is building a broader inflation thesis across five related markets, with this No bet large relative to recent market activity.

This bettor is up $125k lifetime across 753 resolved trades.
They have $22.5k spread across 5 related inflation markets, suggesting a broader macro thesis.
This $2.8k No buy was larger than the market’s entire 24h volume.

$2,801 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%

4-market inflation thesis

Wallet is building a sustained cross-market thesis against >4.5% inflation in 2026, with $21k across four related markets and recent price momentum supporting the direction.

This wallet has placed $21k across 4 related inflation markets, pointing to a broader macro thesis.
The latest trade bought No at 36¢ in a quiet market with only $4.6k traded in 24 hours.
Market momentum supports the move: Yes odds are down 17.5 points over the past week.

$1,084 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%