Part of: Elon Musk # tweets August 17 - August 19, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,114.

Categories: Culture, Politics, Tweet Markets

Notable Trades

Funded cluster backs No

An 18-wallet funded cluster joined three fresh No buys, including a bettor with a 92% win rate, providing strong coordinated directional evidence despite one routine Yes sale.

Three wallets bought No for $4,902, including a bettor who wins 92% of 295 resolved trades.
Eighteen linked wallets share a funder, while four wallets concentrated nearly $6,000 on No.
The $1,049 Yes sale appears to be routine position management; the stronger signal is the fresh No buying at 83–87¢.

$5,952 on No

18-wallet funded No cluster

An 18-wallet funded cluster has repeatedly positioned on No, with this bet representing a substantial share of the market's modest liquidity.

Eighteen wallets share a funder, and this cluster has appeared repeatedly across prior runs.
The $1,013 position is roughly one-third of the market's $3,049 liquidity, making it a meaningful concentrated bet.
The wallet has a 64% record across 282 resolved bets, though that track record is supportive rather than exceptional.

$1,013 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Sharp bettor makes concentrated Yes bet

A highly experienced bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial implied-odds edge made a concentrated Yes bet that dominates this thin market's recent volume.

This bettor has won 82% of 879 resolved trades and is up $206,523.
The $1,149 Yes purchase accounts for 72% of the market's 24-hour volume.
The wallet has traded across 37 events and 44 markets, showing a broad repeatable strategy rather than a one-off bet.

$1,149 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%