What is the Spider-Man: Brand New Day prediction market?

It is a Polymarket-style prediction market on whether Spider-Man: Brand New Day reaches at least $900 million in domestic box office gross by August 31, 2026.

When does the Spider-Man: Brand New Day box office market resolve?

The market resolves after finalized daily box office figures are available for the period from the July 31, 2026 opening through August 31, 2026.

What data determines the market outcome?

Resolution is based on the finalized Daily Box Office Performance figures listed on the movie’s The Numbers page. Studio estimates are not used once final values are available.

What does smart money activity show for this market?

Tracked activity includes profitable bettors scaling into Yes and a whale adding to a concentrated No position, indicating interest on both sides of the market.

What does a Yes outcome mean?

Yes means Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s reported domestic gross reaches at least $900 million by the market’s August 31, 2026 deadline.

Part of: "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?

This prediction market asks whether Spider-Man: Brand New Day will earn at least $900 million in domestic box office revenue between its July 31 opening and August 31, 2026. The market resolves using finalized daily box office figures from The Numbers, with smart money activity currently showing signals on both Yes and No positions.

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $44,976.

Categories: Movies, Culture, Box Office, Spider-Man, box office, spider-man

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor scaling into Yes

A profitable 81% bettor is adding to a substantial Yes position alongside a linked wallet after a sharp one-day price rise.

This bettor has won 81% of 112 resolved trades and is up $46,373 lifetime.
They added $7,974 to Yes at 54¢ after already holding $73,127 in Yes shares.
A second wallet sharing the same funder is also positioned in the event, with $11,500 in combined exposure.

$2,681 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable bettor scaling into Yes

A profitable 81% bettor is adding to a substantial Yes position alongside a linked wallet after a sharp one-day price rise.

This bettor has won 81% of 112 resolved trades and is up $46,373 lifetime.
They added $7,974 to Yes at 54¢ after already holding $73,127 in Yes shares.
A second wallet sharing the same funder is also positioned in the event, with $11,500 in combined exposure.

$7,974 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Whale adds to concentrated No position

A large wallet added $21.8K to an existing No position, with linked-wallet support and a sharp move beyond the market's prior price range despite only a middling track record.

This bettor added $21,809 to an existing No position now worth about $64,210.
A second wallet shares the same funder, while No moved 32.8% beyond its prior historical range.
The wallet has won 60% of 1,570 resolved bets and is up $620,050, though its record is not exceptionally sharp.

$8,190 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%

Whale adds to concentrated No position

A large wallet added $21.8K to an existing No position, with linked-wallet support and a sharp move beyond the market's prior price range despite only a middling track record.

This bettor added $21,809 to an existing No position now worth about $64,210.
A second wallet shares the same funder, while No moved 32.8% beyond its prior historical range.
The wallet has won 60% of 1,570 resolved bets and is up $620,050, though its record is not exceptionally sharp.

$4,322 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%

Whale adds to concentrated No position

A large wallet added $21.8K to an existing No position, with linked-wallet support and a sharp move beyond the market's prior price range despite only a middling track record.

This bettor added $21,809 to an existing No position now worth about $64,210.
A second wallet shares the same funder, while No moved 32.8% beyond its prior historical range.
The wallet has won 60% of 1,570 resolved bets and is up $620,050, though its record is not exceptionally sharp.

$21,809 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%