Part of: Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?

Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?

This Polymarket market resolves Yes if the specified intersection in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, is shaded as captured on the ISW map by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it resolves No. Current odds were not included in the provided market data. PolySpotter reports $1,901 in tracked smart money and one signal, with a recent alert that a profitable serial trader added to No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,933.

Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader flips toward Yes

A profitable serial cross-market trader sold No amid a sharp Yes price rally, though the trade may partly reflect closing an existing No position.

  • This trader has a 70% win rate across 198 resolved bets and is up $38,227 lifetime.
  • They sold No at 43¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 57¢, as Yes odds rose 22.5% in a day.
  • The trader has acted across 29 events, though this may partly be an exit from an existing No position.

$1,032 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable serial trader adds to No

A profitable serial cross-market trader added substantially to an existing No position in a quiet conflict market, with price action also moving toward No.

  • A bettor with 196 resolved markets is up $27,968 and has a 70% win rate.
  • They added $1,901 to an existing No position while 24-hour market volume was just $205.
  • No has since moved from their 71¢ entry to 78¢, with Yes down 14.5% over the past day.

$1,901 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Related Theses

Russia won't fully capture Chasiv Yar

Covers 1 related market

Covers 3 related markets

Russia will not capture Lyman

Covers 2 related markets

Russia captures Vodianske by year-end

Covers 1 related market

Russia won’t capture Kostyantynivka

Covers 2 related markets

Russia won't capture Dobropillia

Covers 1 related market

Russia won't capture Rai-Oleksandrivka

Covers 1 related market

Kostyantynivka dates are mispriced

Covers 2 related markets

Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?

Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?$2,933 tracked2 signalsGeopoliticsUkraine Map
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “Yes”
102¢
74¢
46¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?

2026-10-23 06:39 UTC

$1,032 on Yes at 57¢

57¢→100¢↑43¢

Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?

2026-10-10 20:30 UTC

$1,901 on No at 71¢

Related Theses