Part of: Israel Election: Bloc Seat Margin of Victory
Will the Netanyahu bloc win the Israeli election by 7+ seats?
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin, in seats, between the combined number of seats won in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election by the Netanyahu bloc (“Bibi”) and by the opposition bloc (“Opposition”). The Netanyahu bloc consists of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas. The opposition bloc consists of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu. Seats won by any party not named above will not count toward either bloc. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the two blocs’ combined seat totals. This market will resolve to the bracket for the bloc that wins more combined seats that contains this margin. If both blocs win the same combined number of seats, this market will resolve to “Tie”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,404.
Categories: Israel, Politics, Elections, Israel Election, Global Elections, Margin of Victory, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader adding No
A profitable serial cross-market trader with 238 resolved bets is adding a sizable No position in a thin market, though their historical win rate does not clearly beat the odds they typically pay.
- This trader is up $117,587 across 238 resolved bets and has traded across 62 events.
- They added about $1,800 to No in a market with roughly $2,000 in liquidity, building on an existing position.
$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable trader adds to No
A profitable, highly active trader added $1,604 to No in a thin market, accounting for 91% of its 24-hour volume.
- This trader is up $59,593 across more than 1,100 resolved bets.
- The $1,604 No buy made up 91% of the market’s 24-hour volume and adds to an existing position.
- The trader entered at 78¢, while No is now priced at 83¢; the market has a wide 7¢ spread.
$1,604 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0x44c7...32cb — Yes, $4,820
- 0x0787...0ca3 — No, $4,061 (65% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $904
- 0x6bab...0fe5 — No, $304 (75% win rate)
- 0xff91...ab3a — No, $273 (55% win rate)
- 0xf825...2e2b — Yes, $270
- 0xad53...ef24 — Yes, $216
- 0xdbf7...fbea — No, $210 (57% win rate)
- 0x5a21...9318 — Yes, $181 (65% win rate)
- 0x9620...c5a5 — Yes, $150
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