What counts as an expulsion for this market?

A qualifying expulsion is a formal action by a country ordering an Iranian diplomat to leave, including declaring the diplomat persona non grata. An official announcement is enough for the market to resolve “Yes.”

When does the market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying expulsion is announced by June 30, 2026, with the market description specifying the cutoff as 11:59 PM ET.

What would make the market resolve to “No”?

If no country announces a qualifying expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by the deadline, the market resolves to “No.”

How much smart money is tracked on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,153 in smart money on this market, with 1 smart money signal identified.

Part of: Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

Q: What does this Iranian diplomat expulsion market predict?

It predicts whether any country will expel an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between the market’s creation and June 30, 2026.

This prediction market asks whether any country will formally expel an Iranian diplomat stationed there before the June 30, 2026 deadline. A “Yes” outcome requires an official order to leave, including a persona non grata declaration; PolySpotter currently tracks $1,153 in smart money and 1 signal on this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,153.

Categories: Ambassador, Iran, Argentina, Lebanon, Geopolitics, Politics

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market specialist

Profitable serial cross-market bettor put a fresh $1.15k No bet into a very quiet geopolitics market, worth surfacing despite modest absolute size.

This bettor has won 69% of 319 resolved trades and is up $21.6k lifetime.
The $1.15k No buy was over 5x the market’s entire 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
They have traded across 52 related markets and 41 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.

$1,153 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%