Part of: Another US strike on Venezuela by...?
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $117,172.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Venezuela, World
Notable Trades
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?
Four wallets sold the same side for nearly $59k in a market with just $1 of 24h volume and under $7.5k liquidity, a strong coordinated conviction signal despite only modest wallet track records.
- Four wallets hit the same side within minutes, unloading $58.6k together.
- They sold into a market with only $1 of 24h volume and $7.5k liquidity, so this flow likely reflects strong conviction.
- All four entered around 77¢, meaning they were willing to fade this market even with No already priced near 76%.
$58,586 on No
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?
Four wallets simultaneously bought $58.6k of No in an extremely inactive, thin market, overwhelming the order book and signaling coordinated conviction even though the wallet track records are still limited.
- Four wallets hit No within 2 seconds for $58.6k total, a strong one-sided cluster on the same thesis.
- The market was nearly inactive with just $1 of 24h volume and $7.5k liquidity, so these bets were large enough to matter.
- They paid 77¢ for No while the market now sits around 76%, showing firm conviction that a US strike on Venezuela stays unlikely.
$58,586 on No
Top Holders
- 0x3112...09a8 — No, $2,789 (75% win rate)
- 0x8e77...c4f3 — No, $2,000
- 0xa8c6...44e8 — No, $1,350 (75% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $1,330 (69% win rate)
- 0x391d...def1 — Yes, $1,082
- 0x97f3...0eba — Yes, $1,029 (42% win rate)
- 0x61f0...529e — Yes, $1,000
- 0xb886...81b3 — Yes, $886 (59% win rate)
- 0xcf19...6402 — Yes, $759 (56% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — No, $750 (40% win rate)