What is the Clarity Act 2026 prediction market about?

This market asks whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, also known as H.R.3633, will be passed by the House and Senate and signed into law by the end of 2026.

When does the Clarity Act market resolve?

The market resolves after the deadline of December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The listed resolution timestamp is January 1, 2027 at 05:00 UTC.

What has to happen for the market to resolve Yes?

For a Yes outcome, H.R.3633 must pass both chambers of the U.S. Congress and be signed into law by the President by the deadline.

What sources are used to resolve this Polymarket market?

The primary source is the Congress.gov legislation tracker for H.R.3633, along with other official U.S. government information. Credible reporting may also be considered if necessary.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $6,316 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal, with recent alerts including repeat whale buying No and a profitable wallet buying Yes.

Part of: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) will pass both chambers of Congress and be signed into law by December 31, 2026. It resolves based primarily on Congress.gov and official U.S. government sources, with credible reporting used if needed. PolySpotter is tracking $6,316 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including recent whale and profitable-wallet trades on both Yes and No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

15 smart money signals detected, totaling $43,280.

Categories: Crypto, Trump, us law, Politics

Notable Trades

New wallet scaling into NO

A 7-day-old repeat large bettor put $6.3k on No in a politically informed crypto-regulation market, and the market has already moved sharply in that direction.

This 7-day-old wallet has now triggered 10 large-bet alerts totaling $21.4k.
They bought $6.3k of No at 36–37¢, and No has already moved to 44¢.
The market moved 7 points toward No over the past day, matching this bettor’s direction.

$6,316 on No

Profitable new policy bettor

A repeat-flagged new wallet with early profit is adding to a crypto policy market after a sharp pullback, suggesting fresh conviction despite limited resolved history.

This new wallet is already up $2.4K after 9 resolved bets.
It has now been flagged 4 times, with $5.4K total in notable positions.
Buying Yes at 61¢ after a 13-point weekly drop suggests they see value in the pullback.

$1,937 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%

86% win-rate policy sharp

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate bought Yes on the Clarity Act market at 67¢.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up over $1.0M lifetime.
They are a major serial cross-market trader, active across 350 markets with $17.3M invested.
Entry at 67¢ suggests they still see upside despite the market already pricing Yes as likely.

$1,420 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

New profitable wallet buying Yes

A 6-day-old repeat bettor with early profits is adding a $2,000 Yes position into a politically significant market that has moved up 9 points today.

This 6-day-old wallet is already 2-for-2 on resolved bets and up $6,464.
It has now triggered 4 large-bet alerts, with $7,118 flagged across early positions.
Yes has moved up 9 points today, and this buy at 67¢ follows that momentum.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

New repeat whale buys No

A very new wallet with repeated large-bet flags is taking the contrarian No side in a liquid, politically salient crypto-legislation market after $19k of recent flagged activity.

This wallet is under 2 days old but has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts totaling about $19k.
They are taking the contrarian No side at 34¢ while Yes has moved up 8 points in the past day.
The market is meaningful and liquid, so repeated fresh-wallet sizing may reflect a strong policy thesis.

$1,342 on No

2-day wallet fading rally

Very new wallet has repeatedly placed notable bets and is taking a contrarian No position after a sharp Yes rally, though it has no resolved track record yet.

This wallet is less than 2 days old but has already made 8 flagged bets totaling $17.7k.
They bought No at 29¢ while the market has moved strongly toward Yes, up 17 points in the past day.
This is a contrarian bet on a high-volume crypto policy market, but the wallet has no resolved track record yet.

$1,067 on No

New repeat wallet bets No

A 1-day-old repeat new wallet has now put $16.7k into flagged large bets and is taking the contrarian No side on a high-volume crypto legislation market.

This wallet is only 1 day old but has already made 7 flagged large bets totaling $16.7k.
The bet takes the contrarian No side at 35¢ while the market currently favors Yes at 64%.
Crypto legislation is a market where informed political positioning can matter, and this is fresh conviction rather than profit-taking.

$2,202 on No

New repeat whale buys NO

A 1-day-old wallet has now been repeatedly flagged for sizable bets, adding another No position despite no resolved track record yet.

This brand-new wallet has been flagged 6 times in roughly a day, totaling $14.5K in notable bets.
They bought No at 40¢ on a liquid political/crypto policy market, suggesting conviction against the current 58% Yes price.
The market has drifted down 6.5 points this week, and this trade is aligned with that recent No momentum.

$1,346 on No

22-hour wallet buying NO

A 22-hour-old wallet is making repeated large bets and bought $3.7k of No into a market already moving toward No.

A brand-new wallet has already placed $13.1k in flagged large bets.
This $3.7k No buy aligns with recent market momentum, with Yes down 9 points in the last day.
Entry at 40¢ implies a 2.5x payout if the bill fails to become law by the deadline.

$3,706 on No

New repeat whale on No

A 22-hour-old wallet has repeatedly made large flagged bets and put $8.4k on No as the market has moved down sharply.

A brand-new wallet is making sizable bets, with 5 large-bet flags totaling $13.1k.
They put $8.4k on No at 39–40¢, backing the recent move against Yes.
The market is down 9 points today, so this trade aligns with fresh momentum.

$8,432 on No