Part of: DeepSeek V4 released by...?

DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,000.

Categories: Tech, AI, China

Notable Trades

Repeat new-wallet AI bettor

A repeat new wallet has already put nearly $15k into flagged bets and just added another $2k to a rising AI release market, suggesting fresh conviction despite no resolved track record yet.

  • This new wallet has been flagged 5 times already, with $14.7k in notable bets despite having no long history.
  • They just bought Yes at 82¢ while this market is already moving higher, up 5.5 points in a day.
  • The bet is meaningful but not whale-sized, so the main signal is repeated conviction from a fresh account.

$2,000 on Yes

93% win-rate AI contrarian

A very high-win-rate serial event trader bought No on a major AI release market, offering a followable contrarian signal despite only moderate size.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades across 862 bets and is up $107.8k lifetime
  • They trade across many related events and markets, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off punt
  • They bought No at 23¢ while the market sits around 21¢, a cheap contrarian position against a 79% Yes consensus

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Top Holders

  1. 0xf29a...35b6 Outcome 79590522, $28,350
  2. 0xfee3...e3ad Outcome 79590522, $10,003
  3. 0x3c5b...0584 Outcome 79590522, $6,638 (93% win rate)
  4. 0x6ae9...8e81 Outcome 79590522, $4,949
  5. 0x28eb...f1e1 Outcome 79590522, $4,073
  6. 0xcc26...32ca Outcome 79590522, $3,000 (38% win rate)
  7. 0x1f23...afd3 Outcome 79590522, $2,125
  8. 0x3290...f4bd Outcome 79590522, $1,589
  9. 0x6ba9...7e50 Outcome 79590522, $1,143
  10. 0x6469...c029 Outcome 79590522, $1,078

Related Theses

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

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Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?

ResolvedDeepSeek V4 released by...?$3,000 tracked2 signalsTechAIChina

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count. The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3. Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?

45d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 82¢

DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?

45d ago

$1,000 on No at 23¢

Related Theses