DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?

This prediction market asks whether the next major DeepSeek V series model, such as DeepSeek V4 or a later true successor to V3, will be released to the general public by April 30, 2026. Intermediate updates like DeepSeek-V3.5 do not count for resolution. Traders are using this market to price the odds of DeepSeek’s next major AI model launch before the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count. The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3. Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,000.

Categories: Tech, AI, China

Notable Trades

93% win-rate AI contrarian

A very high-win-rate serial event trader bought No on a major AI release market, offering a followable contrarian signal despite only moderate size.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades across 862 bets and is up $107.8k lifetime
  • They trade across many related events and markets, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off punt
  • They bought No at 23¢ while the market sits around 21¢, a cheap contrarian position against a 79% Yes consensus

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbad7...b732 No, $50,346
  2. 0x2af0...b2a8 Yes, $16,299
  3. 0xfee3...e3ad Yes, $11,577
  4. 0xa726...4646 Yes, $11,439
  5. 0x3118...ee98 No, $9,999
  6. 0x8a8e...df12 Yes, $8,348
  7. 0xf29a...35b6 No, $8,186
  8. 0x0b7a...86cf Yes, $8,124 (39% win rate)
  9. 0x8ace...6069 No, $7,726
  10. 0x3c5b...0584 No, $6,638 (93% win rate)

Related Theses

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DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?

6d$1,000 tracked1 signalTechAIChina
Yes
79¢
No
21¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count. The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3. Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
88¢
79¢
70¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?

5h ago

$1,000 on No at 23¢

23¢21¢2¢

Related Theses